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08/13/2018 Market Recap

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Cobra
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08/13/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

SPY hasn't had 5 consecutive down days since July 2016. Let's see if bears can finally make it tomorrow. I have no idea up or down tomorrow.
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Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58333
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 08/13/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

SUMMARY:

Was careful calling uptrend day in the morning, good. Wrong thought the breakdown was for real, even knowing that it's very common to break down then sharp reverse up. The sharp reversal up was failed again, this time I was smart didn't make any comments otherwise it could be easily wrong. Overall, trading on the downside is difficult, gladly I didn't do anything today.


NOTE:

By here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3017&p=257998#p257998), it's still hard to tell whether the day was an uptrend day or range day.

By here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3017&p=258003#p258003), I realized the vacuum down therefore it's likely a range day. I generally don't trade on the downside on the range day, so I'd wait for trading reversals setup.

Reminded the usual breakdown then sharp reversal up pattern here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3017&p=258017#p258017).

At the this point the breakdown looked real (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3017&p=258019#p258019). I mean I was tricked.

Well, wrong, it still was a typical breakdown then sharp reversal up (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3017&p=258024#p258024) pattern.

I don't know by here how I would be able to see it's going to reverse down? I was lucky waited a little longer before saying "bears might be over".
2.png
By here it looked like a trading reversal (up) setup and again gladly I waited a little longer before commenting "higher low, the low of the day might be in".
3.png
Overall, for me it's a difficult day to trade. I didn't see down in the morning then reversal up from breakdown then down again from the last close...
1.png
DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.
  • My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
  • Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
  • Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

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