Cobra's Market View

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for now, for now, it looks like a bear flag. bear flag mostly doesn't work though. My guess is range day today.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/08 ... ay-update/

Down gaps this morning were a pure gift to dip-buying bulls. Quick easy fill on QQQ, and IWM a sharp kaboom right up to yest high. SPY is lagging, yet to fill.

Update: hard to tell on various charts, SPY may have gap-filled by a tick, or maybe just fell short...

From David Rosenberg via Twitter:
How ironic on the eve of the “longest bull market ever” the SPX failed at the highs in what was the 6th attempt since the Jan 26th record close. Breadth/volume far below prior peak, when 8 sectors participated vs. just 2 yesterday. Farrell’s Rule #7 at play.
6:18 AM - 22 Aug 2018

Big Board Ticks already falling thru it's moving average...

SPX LOD goes.. look to yGAP and Mon's .. TRANSports not happy.. bonds up strong again.. mind the downside move

Nomura reporting that the generic S/L hedge fund is losing money with the most shorted hedge fund holdings up 5 something % while the most held longs down 2 or so %.

Bios went crazy up this morning, now starting to settle down.

QQQ, IWM still within the OR-15min. SPY is just below.

Dollar (UUP) has given up all of its mid-month gain and is back at support in the 25.15--20 area.

Still heading down....

Bouncing in several individual sectors. This is where I get sucked into a bad trade..... LOL!

My fast tick count view looks like a market trying to find a direction.
It appears with Netflix up 10% in three days and the rotation into the speculative sectors that this has been a combination of short squeeze and (conjecture on my part) stock buyback money. That works but only if the rest of the market follows along.

Smalls look like they have pulled back from their bounce which gives me pause....

I have the overnight high at around 7:10 AM New York time. Currently my prime candidate for the top of the range with somewhere around the opening print as the bottom, for now.

Took a nibble...

Big sell order showed up 2 points higher.

Sorry 2 TICKS higher

See for yourself how ES 2862 became important to some larger traders the second time.
They have turned my little range into an up channel for now.