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09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Gap up above Friday's range, but I'm not sure if the gap will be filled or not, the chart so far looks like a Bear Flag. A 90 degree up from here is what bulls need, let's see.
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Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Good morning everyone! Hope you all had a nice weekend!
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StrikePrice
- Posts: 770
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Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
tomorrow is gold option expiration date.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Today, VIX will probably fall under the presently supportive Fan Line and inside the Acceleration Band (blue).
Next serious support ~36.
Next serious support ~36.
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Last edited by cougar on Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
AAPL under pressure
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Looking to short on a test of bear flag 1155 - 60 spx Then looking for a run to 1100 min but target sweet spot 1060 this week
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silicon_beaver
- Posts: 524
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- Location: Beaverton OR
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Good Morning Cobra and everyone.
gold looks down.
gold looks down.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
the open, a little stretched, so should be a pullback or consolidation here.
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Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Heading into the last 5 days of September with the month currently down -6.77%, I took a look at SPX performance into month end – looks like the trend has been a reversion into the last 5 days of the month…
For the last 4 months in a row, SPX performance in the last 5 days of the month has been the opposite of MTD performance up to then – aka, if SPX is down MTD, SPX is up over the last 5 days (and vice versa). Back to January, this has happened 7 of 8 months with April the only outlier (MTD perf was up, 5 day perf was up). On top of that, beta moves accordingly in every instance – if SPX is up over the last 5 days of the month, RTY outperforms and vice versa (SPX down, RTY underperforms)…not as strong for NDX with this correlation only true 50% of the time. Data below.
SPX Performance RTY Performance NDX Performance
Month MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (%) Last 5 Days (%) MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (%) Last 5 Days (%) MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (%) Last 5 Days (%)
Jan 2.64 -0.37 -0.56 0.25 3.72 -0.8
Feb 4.42 -1.18 6.86 -1.36 4.85 -1.73
Mar -1.32 1.23 -0.77 3.24 -1.65 1.16
Apr 0.87 1.96 0.25 2.32 1.64 1.13
May -3.39 2.11 -5.92 4.21 -3.63 2.41
June -4.59 2.89 -5.38 3.08 -4.95 3.11
July 1.85 -3.92 1.74 -5.32 4.49 -2.75
Aug -8.87 3.51 -13.11 4.94 -9.22 4.47
Sep -6.77 ? -10.23 ? -1.52 ?
Looking at 10yr treasury yields (-37bps MTD), no real trend in performance into month-end, but figured it was worth sharing the data…Performance over the last 2 months has been correlated (10yr yield down MTD and down over the last 5 days), but back to Jan, performance is correlated 50% of the time. Data below.
10yr Yields
Month MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (net chg) Last 5 Days (net chg)
Jan 0.111 -0.034
Feb 0.217 -0.16
Mar -0.023 0.066
Apr -0.079 -0.105
May -0.158 -0.068
June -0.149 0.248
July -0.198 -0.166
Aug -0.497 -0.076
Sep -0.374 ?
For the last 4 months in a row, SPX performance in the last 5 days of the month has been the opposite of MTD performance up to then – aka, if SPX is down MTD, SPX is up over the last 5 days (and vice versa). Back to January, this has happened 7 of 8 months with April the only outlier (MTD perf was up, 5 day perf was up). On top of that, beta moves accordingly in every instance – if SPX is up over the last 5 days of the month, RTY outperforms and vice versa (SPX down, RTY underperforms)…not as strong for NDX with this correlation only true 50% of the time. Data below.
SPX Performance RTY Performance NDX Performance
Month MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (%) Last 5 Days (%) MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (%) Last 5 Days (%) MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (%) Last 5 Days (%)
Jan 2.64 -0.37 -0.56 0.25 3.72 -0.8
Feb 4.42 -1.18 6.86 -1.36 4.85 -1.73
Mar -1.32 1.23 -0.77 3.24 -1.65 1.16
Apr 0.87 1.96 0.25 2.32 1.64 1.13
May -3.39 2.11 -5.92 4.21 -3.63 2.41
June -4.59 2.89 -5.38 3.08 -4.95 3.11
July 1.85 -3.92 1.74 -5.32 4.49 -2.75
Aug -8.87 3.51 -13.11 4.94 -9.22 4.47
Sep -6.77 ? -10.23 ? -1.52 ?
Looking at 10yr treasury yields (-37bps MTD), no real trend in performance into month-end, but figured it was worth sharing the data…Performance over the last 2 months has been correlated (10yr yield down MTD and down over the last 5 days), but back to Jan, performance is correlated 50% of the time. Data below.
10yr Yields
Month MTD Up To the Last 5 Days (net chg) Last 5 Days (net chg)
Jan 0.111 -0.034
Feb 0.217 -0.16
Mar -0.023 0.066
Apr -0.079 -0.105
May -0.158 -0.068
June -0.149 0.248
July -0.198 -0.166
Aug -0.497 -0.076
Sep -0.374 ?
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rocstocktrader
- Posts: 100
- Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 3:36 pm
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Some of sectors are working towards closing last weeks gap down levels. http://rocmarketdashboard.webs.com/
Last edited by rocstocktrader on Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ultramarine
- Posts: 194
- Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:25 am
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Gold hit $1550 in overnight trading. That is a commonly mentioned support level for a medium term correction. Let's see if it will revisit that level this week (or today).
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Advancing issues 2100 right out of the gate
Looks like banks
$BKX +2%
Am long BAC short term, my favorite short squeeze candidate, out on break of double bottom
BAC/WFC/JEF etc filled gap of 9/22 last week, tried to buck trend
XLF/FAS/GS/C etc turned down at gap resistance last week, but just filled it
Looks like banks
$BKX +2%
Am long BAC short term, my favorite short squeeze candidate, out on break of double bottom
BAC/WFC/JEF etc filled gap of 9/22 last week, tried to buck trend
XLF/FAS/GS/C etc turned down at gap resistance last week, but just filled it
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
morning guys.. i am on the sidelines, feeling no conviction either way. getting tons of mixed signals.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
GC Dec hit its 200ma at 1535ultramarine wrote:
Gold hit $1550 in overnight trading. That is a commonly mentioned support level for a medium term correction. Let's see if it will revisit that level this week (or today).
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Hmm… VIX is much stronger than I expected…That’s OK with me…
Staying long VIX calls.
Staying long VIX calls.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
Time to short SINA guys. Falling below 79.50 ...VERY VERY bearish!
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
guess some news came out ( again ) .. europe is almost flat now from previous 2-3%+ gains
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
pretty big drop in new home sales...New U.S. home sales fall 2.3% in August to 295,000
that should help fill the gap.
that should help fill the gap.
Re: 09/26/2011 Intraday Watering
AK84 wrote:Time to short SINA guys. Falling below 79.50 ...VERY VERY bearish!
hey ak whats the significance of 79.5?