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09/17/2018 Market Recap

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Cobra
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09/17/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

The pullback today added chances of double top. Let's see whether bears can have a good follow through tomorrow. Based on the chart shown in the 09/14 Market Recap, it should be expected the pullback would last for a few days.
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Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 09/17/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

SUMMARY:

Typical down trend day that each rebound looked like the low was in but they simply failed. Hard to trade this kind of day.


NOTE:

Explained what I was watching here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3070&p=259003#p259003). Really hard to trust bears so nowadays I tend to simply buy dip only therefore even it did a breakdown, I'd watch anyway.

Reminded the breakdown then sharp rebound pattern here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3070&p=259004#p259004), which indeed happened again today. Could I simply buy any sharp breakdown? Yes, but I bet as soon as I bought the breakdown, it'd go straight down instead of a sharp rebound. :mrgreen: The reason it always went sharp rebound simply because I never tried to buy the breakdown...

Called possible 2nd leg down here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3070&p=259008#p259008). I was still waiting to buy so of course would wait for the leg down. The trading reversal long setup always skips the very first rebound, remember? So wait for the 2nd leg down is the must for the setup.

Saw possible trading reversal long setup here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3070&p=259012#p259012). I was still waiting because it's not convincing enough.

Another possible trading reversal long setup (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3070&p=259019#p259019). I wasn't very sure but, I swear, in the past, usually it meant the low was in and this was why I think 51% chances instead of 50% chances. I didn't buy simply because I have no guts, not because I was smart enough knowing that it was just a rebound.

Unfortunately today was not like the past, after bulls tried twice, they gave up, so now a strong 3rd leg down (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3070&p=259024#p259024). Obviously I didn't get any good setup to long so the day was over to me.

It was a very rare close near the low of the day which means we'll have to wait for yet many other down days before one such kind of down till close day could happen again, so at least a little good news for bulls.
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DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.
  • My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
  • Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
  • Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

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