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10/03/2018 Market Recap

10/03/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:22 pm

Rebound still looks weak.
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Re: 10/03/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:51 pm

SUMMARY:

I stared at the later day sharp pullback, dare not comment anything because for so many years I was so brain washed that I no longer believe any bear actions. Guess it'll take awhile...


NOTE:

Until here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3103&p=259420#p259420) I started to believe it's just a range day. Well, not exactly right but at least I knew I shouldn't long.

The market started to fall after 2 pm. All I could do was to stare. The pullback was within the yesterday's range so could fail anytime and it could also be a vacuum down, so I didn't know what to say and what to do. Guess it'll take awhile before I could comment on the downside and probably we'll see more and more downside intraday from now on.

Well, let's go back to the past to see why I was paralyzed:

Biggest red plus long lower shadow, looked like a rebound was the next, so naturally I should wait, shouldn't I?
2.png


Then another long lower shadow so I should wait again, right?
3.png


Well, not exactly right.

It was followed by 2 consecutive good bear bars, not big enough to imply exhaustion, so naturally, I could short here, right?
4.png


Well, wrong. It rebounded.

And by here, it looked like the 2nd bear leg down was about to start. I even drew a measured move target and almost commented "I have a dream".
5.png


Well, wrong again. The next bar indicated a rebound was about to begin.
6.png


So in the end, I did nothing but stare. Well, still better than took actions then cut.
1.png


DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

    My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
    Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
    Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

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