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10/05/2018 Market Recap

10/05/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:17 pm

Need see more bars. Maybe the pullback is not over yet.
spy.png

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Re: 10/05/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:17 pm

SUMMARY:

Didn't realize downtrend day until when testing the yesterday's low. Knew some chances the later rebound meant the low was in, just couldn't be sure as it's always hard to tell in a downtrend day, a strong rebound means bears are over or just a rebound. I'm so used to up days now so need sometimes (and will get enough those times I believe) to get used to down days.


NOTE:

By here I finally realized bears were attacking (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259540#p259540). It was hard to tell before, because the pullback was within the yesterday's range.

Confirmed bear day here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259546#p259546).

On a downtrend day, every rebound would look strong so really hard to tell which one is THE one (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259567#p259567). However, on the second thought, since we know a down from open to close day is rare, so maybe we should simply treat every strong rebound intra-day as the end of bears.

Maybe, just maybe, need see more cases, another way to judge whether a rebound is just a rebound or the end of bears: The pullback was very weak as it couldn't even have a bear follow through and then resumed up, so maybe it meant bears were over (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259572#p259572).

In the end, another V reversal day. Just as I said above, simply treat every bear day as V reversal day, we should be more right than wrong. I felt very frustrating when saying this.
2.png


DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

    My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
    Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
    Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

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Re: 10/05/2018 Market Recap

Postby daytradingES » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:27 pm

Thank-you Cobra for all your good work and the Market recaps.

Having been in an uptrend so long, a bounce at the end of a bear day before a weekend will still happen, i imagine.

I CANT see a large range bear day (eg>30pts on ES) closing at less than 10% (especially on a Friday) for quite some time into a bear trend - should a bear trend start.
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Re: 10/05/2018 Market Recap

Postby Cobra » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:22 pm

daytradingES wrote:Thank-you Cobra for all your good work and the Market recaps.

Having been in an uptrend so long, a bounce at the end of a bear day before a weekend will still happen, i imagine.

I CANT see a large range bear day (eg>30pts on ES) closing at less than 10% (especially on a Friday) for quite some time into a bear trend - should a bear trend start.


Well, let's see the next week. My feeling, just a feeling, is the pullback this time might be a little bigger than before...

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