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10/05/2018 Market Recap

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Cobra
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10/05/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

Need see more bars. Maybe the pullback is not over yet.
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Cobra
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Re: 10/05/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

SUMMARY:

Didn't realize downtrend day until when testing the yesterday's low. Knew some chances the later rebound meant the low was in, just couldn't be sure as it's always hard to tell in a downtrend day, a strong rebound means bears are over or just a rebound. I'm so used to up days now so need sometimes (and will get enough those times I believe) to get used to down days.


NOTE:

By here I finally realized bears were attacking (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259540#p259540). It was hard to tell before, because the pullback was within the yesterday's range.

Confirmed bear day here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259546#p259546).

On a downtrend day, every rebound would look strong so really hard to tell which one is THE one (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259567#p259567). However, on the second thought, since we know a down from open to close day is rare, so maybe we should simply treat every strong rebound intra-day as the end of bears.

Maybe, just maybe, need see more cases, another way to judge whether a rebound is just a rebound or the end of bears: The pullback was very weak as it couldn't even have a bear follow through and then resumed up, so maybe it meant bears were over (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3107&p=259572#p259572).

In the end, another V reversal day. Just as I said above, simply treat every bear day as V reversal day, we should be more right than wrong. I felt very frustrating when saying this.
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daytradingES
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Re: 10/05/2018 Market Recap

Post by daytradingES »

Thank-you Cobra for all your good work and the Market recaps.

Having been in an uptrend so long, a bounce at the end of a bear day before a weekend will still happen, i imagine.

I CANT see a large range bear day (eg>30pts on ES) closing at less than 10% (especially on a Friday) for quite some time into a bear trend - should a bear trend start.
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) :)
Good trading to all
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Cobra
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Re: 10/05/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

daytradingES wrote:Thank-you Cobra for all your good work and the Market recaps.

Having been in an uptrend so long, a bounce at the end of a bear day before a weekend will still happen, i imagine.

I CANT see a large range bear day (eg>30pts on ES) closing at less than 10% (especially on a Friday) for quite some time into a bear trend - should a bear trend start.
Well, let's see the next week. My feeling, just a feeling, is the pullback this time might be a little bigger than before...

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