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10/11/2018 Market Recap

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:17 pm
by Cobra
Even more volume and Fib 50% and MA200 so still could see a rebound in the next couple of days first then we'll see.


Re: 10/11/2018 Market Recap

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:18 pm
by Cobra

The MA200 buy program worked very well in the past so I was too optimistic calling the low was in for today (simply because of it did rebound sharply from MA200), fortunately later when the higher low attempt failed, I was able to fix the error with losses of course. The later day huge rebound was hard to call, I put a question mark and didn't trade on it.


The normal, it's where I decided whether the day was a trend day or range day (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259823#p259823).

Rebounded from MA200 as the same as the past, but there's no bottom pattern on the 5 min chart yet, so I wasn't sure whether the low was in or not (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259837#p259837). Really special day because of MA200. In any other normal day, I'd be sure the low wasn't in because it's just the very first rebound attempt which usually should fail.

As usual, I used the ema20 to gauge the strength of the buy program at MA200 (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259845#p259845).

It broke through ema20 strongly so I decided (also based on the past experiences) that the MA200 buy program should overwrite the "never trust the first rebound rule" therefore I called the low was in (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259849#p259849).

Well, it was wrong. The past experiences killed me this time.

By here it still looked a typical trend reversal pattern - a strong break of ema20 then revisit of the previous low, making a higher low or slightly lower low. The revisit of the low was 2 legged (orange tinted area) and since the 2nd leg was weaker (since it didn't exceed the orange tinted area) so as long as the current rebound could be stronger than the previous one (pink tinted area) then good chances bulls were winning and this was how I set the mini target (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259873#p259873).

Too bad, bulls couldn't make the mini target so by here I knew I was too optimistic (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259875#p259875).

The comment here was just to explain how I judge whether bulls finally have chances (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259891#p259891). The logic is if bulls can go further than the first time then bulls are getting strength therefore may finally have chances.

The mini target was well exceeded, so at least bulls had chances. However it's still the very first rebound therefore a revisit of the low was needed but obviously bulls had no time to do so since the close was near and this was why I put question mark when commented "the low was in?" (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3116&p=259895#p259895).

I cannot draw conclusion from the close, so no comment. The market is really oversold, so a rebound within the next couple of days should be of higher odds.


The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

    My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
    Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
    Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.