10/18/2018 Market Recap

[Cobra]

Up or down from here 50 to 50.

[Cobra]

SUMMARY:

Underestimated bears, maybe from now on I should trust both bear and bull setup, instead in the recent past, simply ignore all the bear setup. No evidences yet bull setup no longer works so still need trust bull setup until proven untrustworthy.


NOTE:

For now it looked like a range day (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260137#p260137).

By here, I still believed it's a range day so I expected a classical breakdown then sharp rebound (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260154#p260154). No regret it's wrong because it's testing the previous low, there's always 50% chances and in the past much higher chances of reversal up.

By here, it's clearly "this bear shall have legs", however, have been brainwashed for some many year, I've long lost the courage saying this bear shall have legs. Anyway, I saw consolidation here so thought it should break on the downside (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260167#p260167).

Well, wrong, it rebounded. However, still generally the rebound should be sold (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260168#p260168). The blah blah here was just to leave a back door in case, like the past, it's simply up and up from here.

I actually believed it's the 3rd time's charm, the rebound should exceed the pink tinted area (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260180#p260180). Yes, the reason was the 3rd time's charm.

Provided the usual pattern here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260184#p260184). Initially I wrote "usually there's a revisit..." but since I was so brainwashed, so I changed to "sometimes there's a revisit...".

Revisit as expected (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260189#p260189). Honestly, I don't remember since when calling on the bear side could be this easy. I was really surprised that I could be right this time.

I mean it's a typical trading reversals setup here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3127&p=260197#p260197).

The close didn't tell me anything useful. Up or down tomorrow, you guess is as good as mine.

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

• My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.

• Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.

• Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.