11/07/2018 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

out of all the bs, zh chose to headline:
“You Are A Rude, Terrible Person”

[JFR]

The market seems happy today. As if it was that simple. Ha ha Gap up. Running up. At some resistance now.

[Al_Dente]

Doug Kass
* Conventional and consensus wisdom – regarding the election outcome – was confirmed last night
* The end of one man’s rule (Trump), without any restraint, is now over
* Democratic marquee candidates disappointed and the Republicans were rewarded with a larger than expected Senate majority
* The Democratic House win comes with powerful committee ownership – for the first time in two years the Administration will now have a check against their agenda
* Even more volatility and uncertainty lies ahead
* I am now (opportunistically and in premarket trading) adding to my short book

[Cobra]

1st test of ema20 in 2+ hours, so generally should be bought around here.

[BullBear52x]

A day like today they will make it hard for day traders to trade as much as possible, I think the next buy dip we may not see a new high but it's a buy nonetheless. stick to our book and lets roll the dice. so far first 5 handles reversal, not a bad counter trend move now lets buy it.

[brokebybernacke2]

Doug Kass
* Conventional and consensus wisdom – regarding the election outcome – was confirmed last night
* The end of one man’s rule (Trump), without any restraint, is now over
* Democratic marquee candidates disappointed and the Republicans were rewarded with a larger than expected Senate majority
* The Democratic House win comes with powerful committee ownership – for the first time in two years the Administration will now have a check against their agenda
* Even more volatility and uncertainty lies ahead
* I am now (opportunistically and in premarket trading) adding to my short book

i cringe, yet, agree, watching for a double top at recent highs 2820-40 levels...just too much damage with that recent plunge imho.

[BullBear52x]

I would have reverse to buy normally but the overall market were too overbought. just wait.

Back in the sell, today is somewhat a counter trend mentality bias (gut with TA )

Buy the dip, same playbook.

[Al_Dente]

Kass ............... adding to my short book

i cringe, yet, agree, watching for a double top at recent highs 2820-40 levels...just too much damage with that recent plunge imho.

[Cobra]

I don't think it'd be double top here but let's see.

[Trades with cats]

Pick your narrative creator carefully.
Doug Kass played this well. He closed out all his longs and went short the market going into the earnings season. He says it was a really good month, up 20%.
Gandalf has been urging people to go long all the way down and all the up . He seems to have become a follower of Voltare's Professor Pangloss.
McElligott at Nomura seems to have been doing a much better job. He is calling for an up move as all the election hedges are taken off. He is also saying there is a max pain level at (drum roll) 2,800.

The important news is that the huge treasury refunding is not going well. Yet another data point pointing to higher rates. At this point next years buybacks are expected to be less than this years. Most corporate debt has a 5 year maturity. So once again I pose the question, how many boards of directors are interested in watching interest expense double or triple so that they can continue to pay executive management with enormous amounts of stock. And if they do how many investors will simply say "another GE in the making". The Fed has forced a sea change so it is time to change thinking. Staying with the past programs will lead to a wreck.

[Trades with cats]

I have read that around November 15th is the dead line for year end withdraw requests from most hedge funds. One part of the narrative for an up market going into year end (besides the normal seasonal) is that the hedge funds need to re-establish their longs to make some sort of a return into year end. But since they have done so poorly this year it could be they will have to focus on raising cash. Not an easy thing to do if you operate with large amounts of leverage.

[Al_Dente]

Pick your narrative creator carefully. ............. Pangloss ..........

The important news is that the huge treasury refunding is not going well. Yet another data point pointing to higher rates. At this point next years buybacks are expected to be less than this years. Most corporate debt has a 5 year maturity. So once again I pose the question, how many boards of directors are interested in watching interest expense double or triple so that they can continue to pay executive management with enormous amounts of stock. And if they do how many investors will simply say "another GE in the making". The Fed has forced a sea change so it is time to change thinking. Staying with the past programs will lead to a wreck.

Pangloss
great point on interest rates, thanks boss

I try to read most "narratives."
So when i post bull like i did with Gandalf this morning, i like to post a bear too, because anything can happen........ and stay flexible, etc etc

[BullBear52x]

I would have reverse to buy normally but the overall market were too overbought. just wait.

Back in the sell, today is somewhat a counter trend mentality bias (gut with TA )

Buy the dip, same playbook.

Last trade for me, reverse to sell now.

[Trades with cats]

Ha Ha. But really I think anybody who is paid a really large amount of money to forecast the near term future and go out to the public should be listened to. Even if you don't agree because some of the Chess Masters who can move the market want that story out there. So it is really important to keep up.

The problem for Wall Street is they want us to hear nothing but good, but if their analysts go to far that way they become worthless like Abby Joseph Cohen. Unfortunately it appears that Marko got a tap on the shoulder from upper management because I can not think for a moment that his models did not see the possibility of the October sell off.

[Trades with cats]

I am not that good at measured moves, but taking that and the cumulative volume profile into consideration Apple and MSFT better open their wallets wide if they want to see this go up for a third leg.

[Al_Dente]

Sessions out as AG
moments ago

[Cobra]

the pullback probably will be bought again somewhere.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[Trades with cats]

Not that it is very positive but Coolbizone sees the 2808 high as holding, he has put his shorts back on. 207.25 but with a 2809 stop. That is a very tight stop. But he made $300,000 in August and I did not so no more comments from the peanut gallery.

[BullBear52x]

Chart for the road, Your Analog for today. Daily. 2x top is not the end it just means correction is at hand to relief buying pressure. Peace!