11/20/2018 Live Update

[te_fern]

Here is an interesting thought that we all should watch for this afternoon:

"To determine whether the Wednesday – Friday Thanksgiving edge may have been front-run a particular year, you could examine price action. I have repeatedly found that a market that is oversold going into a strong seasonal period will perform better than a market that is overbought going into a strong seasonal period. A very simple metric that could be used in this case would be to see whether the market closed in the top or bottom half of its intraday range on Tuesday of Thanksgiving week. To do this I used SPY instead of SPX, because it had better intraday data.

Since 1993, I found that years in which SPY closed in the top half of its intraday range on Thanksgiving Tuesday posted a 9-5 record from Tuesday’s close to Friday’s close. When SPY closed in the bottom half of its range on Tuesday the performance over Wednesday to Friday was 10-1. And the average instance posted a 0.8% gain these years versus a 0.1% average gain the other years. So Tuesday’s action appears worth watching as we approach this potentially seasonally bullish period."
...from Quantifiable Edges

[Al_Dente]

eCommerce broke its february low
daily

[daytradingES]

9:18
late post (family prb)
couldn't focus this AM and made a mistake in updating - all the numbers were screwy until I figured tha out.
so est are:
2661.50 (current HOD)
2606 LOD (with 2608.25 also coming up)

rng est 54 & 56

The thing is that since we have already broken the breakdown level of 2644.50 the bottom end could be anything. We are below the support level. Most likely it will bounce around at this low level. AS we fell so much in o/n things are dicey. Perhaps selling the bounce for me - on sim only today (obviously).

Careful it can do anything.

NTA

[brokebybernacke2]

9:18
late post (family prb)
couldn't focus this AM and made a mistake in updating - all the numbers were screwy until I figured tha out.
so est are:
2661.50 (current HOD)
2606 LOD (with 2608.25 also coming up)

rng est 54 & 56

The thing is that since we have already broken the breakdown level of 2644.50 the bottom end could be anything. We are below the support level. Most likely it will bounce around at theis low levl. AS we fell so much in o/n things are dicey. Perhpas selling the bounce for me - on sim only today (obviously).

Careful it can do anything.

NTA

bollinger wise, below 2625 and vix +26 before considering bottom imho

[BullBear52x]

my little holy grail, extreme V chaser

[Al_Dente]

dead cat
now we'll see how desperate the bears are to cover

[BullBear52x]

for a day trader, this is a strong rebound intraday view.

[Al_Dente]

LONGER TERM
interesting Art Hill setting
read his note at top
daily

[BullBear52x]

I hope they pull the V-shape thingy on us today

[Daniel]

Houston over over
are we in bear market over.....

From Stock Traders Almanac - Jan.2016

Ned Davis Research recently clarified their bull and bear market definition criteria. The criteria have not changed, they merely added new explanatory language.

Bull and bear markets are measured at peak and trough dates, so both the time and price criteria must be met as of the peak and trough dates.

“A cyclical bull market requires a 30% rise in the DJIA after 50 calendar days
/OR/
a 13% rise after 155 calendar days.

A cyclical bear market requires a 30% drop in the DJIA after 50 calendar days
/OR/
a 13% decline after 145 calendar days.

Similar percent reversals in the Value Line Geometric Index, since 1965, would also qualify.”

[BullBear52x]

Houston over over
are we in bear market over.....

From Stock Traders Almanac - Jan.2016

Ned Davis Research recently clarified their bull and bear market definition criteria. The criteria have not changed, they merely added new explanatory language.

Bull and bear markets are measured at peak and trough dates, so both the time and price criteria must be met as of the peak and trough dates.

“A cyclical bull market requires a 30% rise in the DJIA after 50 calendar days
/OR/
a 13% rise after 155 calendar days.

A cyclical bear market requires a 30% drop in the DJIA after 50 calendar days
/OR/
a 13% decline after 145 calendar days.

Similar percent reversals in the Value Line Geometric Index, since 1965, would also qualify.”

Everyday is a random to me, today we are testing HOD, not bearish.

[Al_Dente]

15min
Nobody wants corporate bonds, nor junk; they only want treasurys. Given all else is equal (and it never is), that is generally bearish equities.

(We know who the foreign treasury buyers are/aren’t)
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11- ... to+zero%29

[BullBear52x]

Sell the rip, same O' Playbook.

[Cobra]

decisive break above the ema 20 then it's uptrend day, sharp pullback then it's range day.

[BullBear52x]

Sell the rip, same O' Playbook.

Sell failed, Oy....


Bulls turn

[Daniel]

I hope they pull the V-shape thingy on us today

If THEY refers to the semiconductors, they already have. Impressive V-shaped g'sprong upwards from the open by SMH. Quick gap fill, now green-- up > 1/2%.

SOXX even stronger-- up 1%.

[Al_Dente]

see that right there:
bears. do. not. like. that. (even though the absolute numbers are still grizzly bear)
must be monitored
5m

[BullBear52x]

I hope they pull the V-shape thingy on us today

If THEY refers to the semiconductors, they already have. Impressive V-shaped g'sprong upwards from the open by SMH. Quick gap fill, now green-- up > 1/2%.

SOXX even stronger-- up 1%.

So far the extreme dip scalpers are happy on any indexes.

[Daniel]

15min timeframe, IWM and QQQ are both approaching their (downslope) 20ema. Another test of today's Vee-shape bounce.

[BullBear52x]

Overall short term chart pattern I see it as a HOOK like last peak for now.