10/05/2011 Intraday Watering

[cougar]

There is this rumor: that the ECB will start printing money and with it buy all the worthless radioactive guano, now in the possession of European private banks…If true, the equities market would soar…
This is only a rumor… but I’ll be careful with keeping too many shorts…

[Cobra]

target reached, finally.

[wjames]

yes we can!
hate these bulls.

[Al_Dente]

Good grief, twenty minutes left, they tryin to run em into close????
GE T BAC not many others

[Rezito]

Yesterday's reversal happened on one of the highest volume days. I wouldn't ignore that fact. I would tread very lightly here as if there are too many shorts entering here we're going all the way to 1180. All I can say is I'm not using more than 25-30% of my capital for short or long positions.

[BullBear52x]

take profit on SSO, lets see how we close, may reload to hedge.

[ultramarine]

Random observation: Since the August low, the risk on bullish pulses have generally run between 4 - 8 days. Doesn't mean it will repeat this time, but looking at trend line resistances, lack of overbought condition and (at the moment) good follow through on yesterday's action, this thing has some room to run. Shouldn't be straight up though.

Yes, I can see the bullish case. There are some stops being hit all the way up here. But at what point does the short/stop squeeze end? I'm not convinced that this rally is going anywhere beyond 1180. Full disclosure: trapped bear!

[uempel]

Thanks Jarbo.

[Al_Dente]

note from my buddy on the GS bond desk:

"The belly of the curve sold off 20 bps…..HUGE move….haven’t seenthat kind of a selloff since 08…..part of this is a glut of new supply coming to the market, but it’s also…..
Risk ON."

think we have another end of day run up...doesn't take much to get people to buy this market.

what is "belly" of yield curve.... is it 10s ... 10 yr maturities?

Between 5-10 year parts of the curve.

Prior to today, the long end had been rallying a scotch, basically flattening the curve (operation twist) but today the selloff was all across the curve from 2013 on out, but really concentrated in the 5-10 year space. Little bit of a reversal today. All in, the word is that brokerdealers sellingoff balances, and syndicates are selling down right now….long long end didn’t sell off quite as much bc there’s marginally more support and more yield hogs and the short end has been strong since forever I guess……
Just to put this in perspective, usually the curve moves 1-2 bps a day, 3-4 is a BIG move. 20….welll sheeeeeeshh………
Muni curve is really viewed traditionally as lagging treasuries historically, but the last 3 times we’ve had big moves, the muni curve was a “leading” indicator……..
All in all, nothing exciting. Long live munis.

That is some GOOD dirt, jar
right from the horses/squids mouth

[jarbo456]

yer welcome fellas. not sure if it's actionable information, but always like to hear what the bond guys are thinking and hearing...

[BullBear52x]

OK now we are approaching daily ma 13, so bears got little hope around here right?

[jarbo456]

well that was civilized considering the past few sessions. guess i'll hold longs again tonight.

[Dow Trader]

OK now we are approaching daily ma 13, so bears got little hope around here right?

Hope ? say confidence at least I am .. today's upleg is very week and will be retraced completely in the next five day at most

[jaijailyc]

boring day for me today... didnt trade anything. Got stopped out of my SPXU from last night's afterhrs @ 1130 with a small loss. Will be looking for another opportunity to short. (I just can't convince myself to long yet.)

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. another strong day but not MAD again. well, guess statistics doesn't matter at all, thank you ladies and guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

[Al_Dente]

well, guess that's it for today. another strong day but not MAD again. well, guess statistics doesn't matter at all, thank you ladies and guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

Dear Chairman of the Board:
(I saved this for the close, so not to distract u)
Re: yr overnight market-outlook comments section; creeps seem to slink in there just 2 upset u
I think your tone is PERFECT and your analysis INSPIRED
And anyone with rude/crude comments is not worth yr precious time, and deserves to be kicked off immediately, so they don’t wear u down
And I want u to get better soon, but if u need to take a few days off, we will all be here when u return
Sincerely yours,
Al

[silicon_beaver]

Thank you, Cobra.

[SB73]

Cobra is right...huge retrace coming tomorrow.

[CognitiveDissonance]

Thank You Cobra!

[Mr. BachNut]

Random observation: Since the August low, the risk on bullish pulses have generally run between 4 - 8 days. Doesn't mean it will repeat this time, but looking at trend line resistances, lack of overbought condition and (at the moment) good follow through on yesterday's action, this thing has some room to run. Shouldn't be straight up though.

Yes, I can see the bullish case. There are some stops being hit all the way up here. But at what point does the short/stop squeeze end? I'm not convinced that this rally is going anywhere beyond 1180. Full disclosure: trapped bear!

Agree. There ought to be a bunch of resistance at 1180 +/- 10 by the end of the week. Hard to see it getting past that without some kind of test of yesterday's low.