12/17/2018 Live Update

[Cobra]

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testing previous low, key time.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/12 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Not much of a bounce.
Personal note this thing is hard for me to trade because of all the wicks and tails, makes my system constantly stop out.

[JFR]

Overnight/weekend gap down on ES, NQ, YM and IWM. Gap and Go so far.

[Trades with cats]

That looks more like a bounce! And so far staying above VWAP makes me wonder if the funds with complex volatility selling strategies are done puking up their positions for now.

[JFR]

Loss leaders on the SP500

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/12 ... ay-update/

[daytradingES]

7:53 AM 12/17/2018

China and subsequent concessions by Beijing — such as buying more U.S. soybeans and oil as well as lowering tariffs on American-made cars — have also failed to spark the market. Trade experts and people familiar with Sino-U.S. negotiations say Beijing needs to do far more to meet U.S. demands for long-term change in how China does business.

Amid a slowing economy, President Xi Jinping will give a speech on Tuesday to mark the 40th anniversary of China's reforms and Beijing is expected to discuss key growth targets and policy goals for 2019 later in the week.

So Tuesday will be tough talk from China re US and reality is that the only real tool is lowering the Yuan. - which won't help the markets.
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Add 4 pts to ALL ES levels below includeing those marked on charts (they are from the prior contract)
2584.25 Breakdown

8:44 AM 12/17/2018
SPY 259.05 must hold on daily CLOSE or breakdown (yes just a little tiny bit below doesn't count)

--
model
Dir 1
Mid Chg -6
Range est 35.00,46.00

as for me - everything is messed up with contract -rollover and lost time in updating the expriry month on all my charts.
All I can say is it looks like a bloodbath - EXCEPT gov buy program could come in.
We are already below the breakdown (2584.25), so my though is sell the retracement -EXCEPT if if is sharp and FAST indicating govt manipulation ahead of Wed's announcement.

9:10 AM 12/17/2018
(I have no confidence in the estimates -best I can do and very late
H/L est 2605.50 2570.50 35.00)

[daytradingES]

charts -

(on one there is the word estimate and a number - that is not for today necessarily - it is for this week
adj by contract difference

[Al_Dente]

FEAR & GREED INDEX
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

[Al_Dente]

[Bespoke, Friday]
There have only been 7 yrs since 1928 where the S&P 500's closing low for the year was in December. The last time was in 2000. Not there yet for 2018, but getting close.

Three of eleven S&P 500 sectors are now in bear markets. Energy $XLE, Materials $XLB, and Financials $XLF.

[QED]

.
Brian Shannon, CMT @alphatrends

this was $SPY in 2008, a refresher for those who do not remember how down trending markets behave
NINE rallies of at least 9.5%
and THREE greater than 20%

https://twitter.com/alphatrends/status/ ... 0757861376

.

[Trades with cats]

QED, Thanks for the reminder of why being short in a bear market can blow up your account!

[JFR]

Trying to break out of a range. Back later ...

[te_fern]

Keeping the boss lady happy today. Good luck to everyone!!

[JFR]

NQ fills the overnight/weekend gap.

[Cobra]

I'm not sure what this means, the low was in?

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:15 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/12 ... ay-update/

[daytradingES]

well too late but much lost time in Internal Sever errors
(sorry about the typos in previous posts - but all attempts to fix them are futile.

Here is a chart which indicates it is NOT a range day and (surprise) confirms the model of dir=+1

[daytradingES]

govt buy programs