01/03/2019 Market Recap

[Cobra]

Closed near the low of the day so likely lower low tomorrow at least. For now 50% chances the rebound was over, bears need a strong follow through tomorrow to kill bulls.

[Cobra]

SUMMARY:

Range day but very tricky. The key is no to trust any moves which I did good today although mostly just by playing Witcher 3.

NOTE:

By here it looked like a downtrend day so I expected the rebound to be sold around ema20 (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3241&p=263702#p263702).

Well, not that easy, by here it looked like bulls might have a reversal day again (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3241&p=263706#p263706). Gladly I remembered no to trust any moves in a range day. I didn't see short setup here though so just stood sideline.

By here clearly it's a range day at the best for bulls. The move should be testing the day low (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3241&p=263720#p263720).

Testing day low indeed, but it's near close now so I did nothing whole day other than played Witcher 3 (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3241&p=263738#p263738). Honestly when on the way to test the day low, lots of times it looked like bulls were about to reverse up. Gladly I didn't fall for it as I remembered when in a downtrend, every rebound looks like a low was in.

The close didn't tell me anything, it could be double bottom or just the dawn before the break on the downside so we'll have to see tomorrow.

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

• My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.

• Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.

• Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

[EkOnkaar]

I am a bit confused. You show bearishness in every time frame and yet the NS model is a Buy? Please help me understand. Thanks.

[Cobra]

I am a bit confused. You show bearishness in every time frame and yet the NS model is a Buy? Please help me understand. Thanks.

The model was phased out because it has a flaw: When in a bear market, as soon as a buy signal triggered, it'll never ever have sell signal for long long time. I phased out the model right before the buy signal was triggered, I mean look at my perfect timing! Anyway, I didn't publicly announce the model's buy signal this time, did I? That's because I decided to phase it out. In one of member's only report I notified members that I'd no longer use the model anymore.

So far all my attempts to make a trading model have failed. I may try again when I have better idea.