Bear, until central bank intervention:
“There is zero evidence that markets can make or sustain new highs without some sort of intervention on the side of central banks. None. Zero. Zilch.
“Every major correction since …[the 2009 bottom]… has been met with major central bank intervention. QE2, Twist, QE3 and so on…
"In
September 2018, for the first time in 10 years, the FOMC removed one little word from its policy stance: “accommodative” and The Fed increased QT.
“When did US markets peak?
September 2018.
“So don’t mistake this rally for anything but for what it really is: Central banks again coming to the rescue of stressed markets."
(Recall Powell’s statement last week: the Fed "wouldn’t hesitate" to tweak balance sheet reduction)
[Northman Trader 1/6/2019 via zh]
Who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=GpjGCS8v
Bull:
The McClellan Oscillator has gone from -70 to +70 in less than 2 weeks. This happened 10 other times since 1962. All 10 saw the S&P 500 higher a year later. Its median return was +21.9%.
“Prior to today, there have only been 3 distinct times when NYSE Up Volume accounted for 95% or more of total volume twice in 2 weeks: Aug '82: S&P 500 was up 31% six months later Jan '87: Up 21% six months later Aug-Nov '11: Up ~12% six months later.
“Over the past 50 years, when the S&P 500 sunk to a 52-week low, then there were two 90% up volume days within two weeks, the S&P
continued
higher over the next 3 months 7 out of 7 times, averaging 3.5%.
[Sentiment Trader, 1/4/2019]
“…according to surveys… Americans are conducting Google searches for the word “recession” at the highest rate since the last one just
ended in 2009.
[NYT 1/6/2019]