Cobra's Market View

AUDJPY
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/audjpy_7477.html

BullBear52x wrote:

Apple wrote:

seekingknowledge wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:Man I wonder how many bears are licking their wounds still.
Been holding TMV from last week's bear trap, and its paying off very nice.
I hate to rub it in, but damn I LOVE when good analysis works.

There were 11 bears shorting at average of 119ish yesterday alone. today couple shorting at 121ish.
the rest in hibernation.

Went short with TZA at 38.38. Holding breath.

I'm seeing more upside to the RUT. TNA probably has another day or so to go.

The one mistake I made I stop hedging the last two days. I am still holding on TZA and seeing no turn sign either. tonight I will buy TNA to hedge if IWM close above 200ma.

Sold TZA at 38.42 (bought at 38.38). Kept watching to see if stupid thing would go up after I sold. Looks like not, but by the time I post this, it will go up. TZA acting crazy, won't even try to get back in when it is going schizo.

tomorrow will be the key day; i guess. if JPM's earning/guidance good. then we go up with the grace of banks.

Use nasdaq as it's better correlated with $RUT in my opinon. You can compare them to see which you prefer.

BullBear52x wrote:

wayne0708 wrote:If it drops below 1195, I am going guess top is in.

118

Hi, how do you think about UNG, when is good time to buy? thanks.

I see little rising wedge here. 14 min to go, hopefully bulls could hold til the close.

VIX back at 30 level. Occurred on Aug 17th, Aug 31st, Sept 16th. All 3 days marked intermediate high points.

Over the next month or so I expect VIX 30 to break to the downside but not before a retrace lower in S&P first (maybe to 1170 to fill gaps). This rally has been stronger than I anticipated without pullbacks, but the NAAIM data suggested as much since it hit the lowest back-to-back readings ever. Bearish sentiment will no doubt plunge over the next month, clearing the way for better risk/reward bearish trades.

If we get back near 1220 I will re-enter a short position with a stop above the highest rally point (1235) since the mini-crash.

There shouldn't be any doubt now that we can re-test the 200 day MA over the next month.

Cobra wrote:I see little rising wedge here. 14 min to go, hopefully bulls could hold til the close.

I am bear hear me roar

Call me a fool. Entered a discretionary trade at 3pm when SPX fell through 1214. Stop above 1220. Bought 600 SDS at 21.99 . . . This is not according to my rules, but everything is acting quite extended.
Expect a few days down soon, me hopes. (Got my stop in though).

I sold a few IWM Oct 14 71 calls @ 0.55

hmm, rising wedge broken, the pullback is just too sharp. I don't have time to update...

is the "smart" money closing the long position?

... and cue turning on the sell program bots...

*poof* !!!!

Glad I bought my last bit of TVIX before the bots were let loose.

*note to self- take profits on TVIX and don't get too greedy once the correction takes us under 1200... we are after all, in a JBTFD mode in the intermediate term

BEARS SHOW STRENGTH NOW!

I'd be content with close below 1200

wow. i love how these markets are SOOOO efficient. -_- sorry for any bulls caught in that 75 cent SPY move.

TZA has broken below the Aug 31 low. I got stopped out earlier today from a longer swing trade position. Live to fight another day.

ES
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/es_8964.html

dont say i didnt warn u...of going short before tlt breaks out

cc2265 wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

wayne0708 wrote:If it drops below 1195, I am going guess top is in.

118

Hi, how do you think about UNG, when is good time to buy? thanks.

get out, see my post this morning, no go, failed move. wait and do nothing right now.