Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

02/05/2019 Live Update

User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58335
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.
  • Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
  • Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.
  • Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.
  • I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to info@cobrasmarketview.com.
=============================================================================================================================================================================

no idea up or down from here so in this case always give bulls a little more credit.
Attachments
ES60min.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58335
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
JFR
Posts: 10125
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:24 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by JFR »

Moving up the last few days. Sustainable?

2019-02-05_0629.png
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
User avatar
JFR
Posts: 10125
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:24 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by JFR »

Overnight gap up on ES, NQ and YM. Smaller gap on IWM.

2019-02-05_0632.png
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58335
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Overnight gap up pretty unusual if you look at the futures charts. London/Frankfurt cash open was 100% of the surge then it flat lined four four hours in a tight range waiting for the US cash open.

Comment from FT 71, odds of two trend days in a row are 21%.
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Not much has happened since the open....
Attachments
SPX.PNG
This is not investment or trade advice.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Economic news today has been negative. Oil crashing. Treasury bonds moving as well. So since once again bad news is good, buy stocks.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Made the first check point, ES 2735. Forecast is 2737 then a struggle to get any higher.
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58335
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

should be a pullback in the next couple of bars otherwise it'd be an uptrend day which I'd find hard to believe.
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

ES 03-19 (2000 Tick) 2019_02_05 (8_51_09 AM).png
Staying in the upper half of the channel. Derivative Oscillator (red, yellow green box 2) not happy with the action. Closing in on 2737 the most commonly traded price in 2018.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Checked my notes, I am off, it is 2735 for 2018 miss popularity crown. 2737 was estimated high for the day.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

1 qtr earnings est.png
Another piece that supports the greatest sucker rally of the last three cycles theory.
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by fehro »

today tomorrow is the day… SPX at 50w/200d 2729/2741… same levels in 2001/2007 bounce levels.. short here and go on a 18month holiday :roll: :lol: ;)
Attachments
Weekly 50w SMA yellow
Weekly 50w SMA yellow
Daily 200d Purple
Daily 200d Purple
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58335
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

typical, the pullback, so it's a range day.
Attachments
1.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Bradley composite.png
Another view of the same thing (prior sucker rally's) from Greg the Analyst on twitter last week.

Trying to be realistic, if the PBoC and others continue to inject gobs of liquidity then all these charts are meaningless. So this is all predicated on the big injections were for lunar new year and they will soon slow down.
User avatar
Mr. BachNut
Posts: 2688
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:28 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

The strongest NYMO cycle ever?
I looked back and could not find a time when NYMO has stayed this high this long.
A few weeks ago, I laid out possible scenarios given historical analogs with very strong NYMO reads.
The most bullish of those scenarios suggested recapture of the 200 day MA without a retest of the December low.
The 200 day MA is just a few handles away at this point. It stands to reason, this may present some resistance, but I expect a reconnect.
Those bullish analogs further suggest we are on our way to all time highs in due course.

As the strength of this thrust is unprecedented NYMO-wise, I am inclined to keep an open mind about what lies ahead.
The bulls may need to catch their breath or take a punch or two at some point before marching to ATHs.
A trip to the January low is plausible but seems very low odds at this point without some nasty event.
More plausible is a dream I am starting to have about the SPX putting in a high between the 200 MA and SPX 2815 and then oscillating for a month or so to form an absolutely massive inverse head and shoulders.
It is a beautiful dream... but I don't know what will happen.

I reloaded long coming out of last week's FOMC. No plans to do anything except tighten stops until further notice.
NYMO 020519.jpg
User avatar
JFR
Posts: 10125
Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:24 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by JFR »

The bulls are prevailing. Hope lives. Pullback to the 20.

Beware the economy. Heck, even Brexit across the pond might not stall the market.

sc.png
sc.png (9.82 KiB) Viewed 7428 times
Charts posted are not recommendations. They are just a sharing of information.
Trades with cats
Posts: 8656
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:40 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Central bank liquidity injections trump valuations and earnings.
But the bond market, now that is something to be concerned about. It is saying the central bankers are going to have to scramble to keep up, just like the last crisis. So multiple rate cuts ahead and future talk from the fed on getting past the zero bound.
te_fern
Posts: 4017
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2015 3:35 pm

Re: 02/05/2019 Live Update

Post by te_fern »

Fell out of the bottom of the channel. Need a little more of a pull back to trigger any of my buy signals....
Attachments
SPX.PNG
This is not investment or trade advice.
Post Reply