Cobra's Market View

I still think 2008 scenario is still valid and I'll stick to that, many indicators suggest that this run up is not at it's full strength, one more success buy dips will really got me out of the long term bear camp.

Lets take a look at long date CCI(144) many longer term traders should be very familiar with this indicator. my charts here shown a failed 2008, a success 2009, a success 2010, and today. look at CCI zero line as a guide of BUY/SELL. pretty self explain if we are in a bull or a bear zone. I am not long term trader but this chart should give us some view on the market as far as Bull/Bears who is in a driver seat.

for Bulls and Bears score during this consolidation phase that started on August low. Bulls lead 21 to 7 and we are in 4th quarter. bulls got the ball at 50 yard line.

Intraday, Buy that dips, here are my intraday supports/line in the sand.

Chart IWM for TNA/TZA shorterm, I held both TNA and TZA, TZA is way deep in the water. I am hoping for a pull back no later than next week that's why I held on TZA.

You hold both TNA/TZA?

hedge fund does the same way. but seldom plays the positions. The only thing to do is keeping writing options.

I hold both FAS/FAZ positions, wrote the weekly options. But last Friday, all of my FAS assigned. hence Monday, my FAZ is without hedge.

Let's see.

BullBear52x wrote:Chart IWM for TNA/TZA shorterm, I held both TNA and TZA, TZA is way deep in the water. I am hoping for a pull back no later than next week that's why I held on TZA.

Hello BullBear! I like your charts and your views on the market.

Here is UPRO on a swing chart, which illustrates the strength of the move.
But it also suggests that, during this OpEx week, a DOWN trip is a probable. A gap up followed by an intraday reversal and a sustained intraday drop into close would herald a healthy correction. It could last for a total of 2-3 days. This would be good for the market. Bamby (Ben.B.) should let it happen…so that Da Boyz could scalp some “buy-the-dippers“.

VIX in free fall…
But the down-move was methodical and it is still flirting with the Acceleration Band (blue) and staying inside the
Envelope (L=67, yellow).
No serious BUY signal yet.

SPY could easily move impulsively above the +2/8 line (122.66). In that case, the whole Murrey Math Octave should get reset at a higher level, which would be considered a bullish event.

EWI, Italy iShares is at the top of it's trendline, with lateral resistance. Looks like it could be a good short:

Great charts guys, as usual. Here are some of my updates:

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_15.html
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_15.html

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/copper_15.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/crude_15.html

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/gold_15.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/silver_15.html

30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/30y_15.html

Have a great weekend!

Okay. Three more (with follow-up tonight):

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurusd_16.html
AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/audjpy_16.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/es_16.html

Have a good one.


Sunday Night Follow-up

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurusd_4822.html
AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/audjpy_568.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/es_7352.html

Nice charts, 99er!

Good morning,
What a rally! Shown here is an update to my cycle study. If the cyclical trend has changed from up to down (stick with me here), then the intermediate up trend may form as a 3 wave correction of the 5 wave down trend from the May High (spx 1370). The colored dots define those 5 waves, and are included in the statistics for determining the t&p box for the next intermediate trend reversal (to down.) We are already in the price range after only 9 days! Clearly, I don't understand these extreme price movements, but it may be related to more professional hot money creating a "traders market", since the "buy and hold" investor has been punished and has withdrawn more capital from the market since the early 2008 period (from what I've read ; confirmation please?)

It seems to me that we are short-term overbought and due for a minor trend reversal, and so I mapped out a view of what that channel might look like on the 60 minute chart. The rally blew through the red time & price box for a minor trend reversal. This indicates that the intermediate trend may be reversing to up. If we gap up on Monday, then throw this chart away! Every day we make a new high, I re-calculate the blue price box for minor trend price support (thank goodness for computers!) If the int. trend is now up (versus more trading range volatility), then price may not reach the blue box before turning up again. Price support for a continuation of the up trend is now at 1190.

GLD weekly with support and resistance:

A possible SPX scenario on the updated “geometric daily chart”:

AAPL Gann squares:

Stock market article: “The S&P 500 Is Getting Close To A Top”

http://stk.ly/qYFCaS

Wow, thank you everyone great charts. the one thing I am afraid of.....we are on the same page, not good.

silicon_beaver wrote:You hold both TNA/TZA?

hedge fund does the same way. but seldom plays the positions. The only thing to do is keeping writing options.

I hold both FAS/FAZ positions, wrote the weekly options. But last Friday, all of my FAS assigned. hence Monday, my FAZ is without hedge.

Let's see.

yes, I do hold on both TNA and TZA, your FAZ is looking good. XLF daily candle surely a reversal candle here.

BullBear52x wrote:Wow, thank you everyone great charts. the one thing I am afraid of.....we are on the same page, not good.

I hear you talking. There is still a lot of short interest, held as hedges against a longer term bear market, that could fuel a continued short squeeze on low volume pumps. The whole politically charged atmosphere with endless international meetings to "finally" to arrive at a solution to world debt problems is just so very hard to predict what the outcomes may be, and their influence on the market.