Cobra's Market View

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no idea up or down from here.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/03 ... ay-update/

looks like a buy, market is very over sold,

Buy 59 support here.

BullBear52x wrote:looks like a buy, market is very over sold,

Buy 59 support here.

40 or 20?

Like I mentioned yesterday morning, bears are officially running the show for these days... Hopefully, nobody here is on the wrong side.

If I were right, ES might be hitting bottom ~2750 today (it's trading ~2758 at the time of writing). This is where I won't hold any shorts and begin to scalp longs.

The Boy Wonder at Nomura listing current levels for CTA's

S&P 500, currently 100% long, selling under 2729.63 to get to 80% , more selling under 2718.23 to get to -100% , flip to short under 2718.51, max short under 2718.23

wow.......... It just hits 2750.25... I'm all out of my shorts.

Wow this is something.

Freaking amazing,

I am the best fade on the planet I swear....

4th degree selling, 5 min. will see, too early to say bulls are done.

Bears owe Super Mario a nice spring run Chinook steak. Good to see that central bank panic mode is no longer positive for the market.

If there really is a PPT,

This is where they are going to come in... UNLESS they are not concerned. But as this crap table is governed I would say the tweets should start flying. Anyone heard why the drop?

flrtrader wrote:If there really is a PPT,

This is where they are going to come in... UNLESS they are not concerned. But as this crap table is governed I would say the tweets should start flying. Anyone heard why the drop?

Super Mario (Mario Draghi, ECB President) went full panic, promises a return to money printing and securities buying with two fists. But he did not go full Bank of Japan did not promise to buy all Eurozone bonds.

"Why the unexpected reaction, one which suggests central banks may now be losing control over markets having pushed on a string just one attempt to push stocks too far, a reaction which a trader at a major trading desk laid out simply as "this is bad."

According to Berenberg analyst Philipp Jaeger the problem is that the details of the TLTRO revealed by Mario Draghi have disappointed the market, which was expecting even more generosity by the ECB."

First down gap target at SPX 2745.73 has been reached.
This coincides with the 200 day MA more or less.
This test of the 200 MA (which may take a while to play out or not) is important.
Success argues for bulls to go on to all time highs. Failure argues for possible test of year lows.

Next gap target at 2709.8 happens to coincide with middle keltner band.

Note that NYMO is in the turn zone intraday. Still a ways to go to reach the oversold zone.
Perhaps a low is near, but this feels like the beginning of a move not the end.
So, perhaps a bounce or some consolidation may be ahead.
It is worth noting that the Feb 2018 and the Oct 2018 cliff dives started with a NYMO turn zone tag.
After the tag, SPX bear flagged for two days before going into the meat of the plunge.
I have no idea what will happen this time around. Just noting that hitting the turn zone may not set the low for the trend.

I scaled out another risk unit of R2K. So this is risk free with a runner.
I added ES short yesterday and have taken a scale. Two risk units left.

Daily entering buy the dip zone. again, wait for RSI >30 to trigger a buy. be greedy when there's blood on a street.

My first lot at 59, my second is coming, wishful thinking.

Why a potential cliff dive is in the cards from a liquidity view-according to the Media I follow, that is to say I think this is the current narrative. It does support Mr. Bachnut's model.

1. 2019 up move has been mostly short covering and a record level of stock buybacks. Only the last week or two was it reported that funds (mutual and ETF) were starting to see net new investment. (potential sucker rally)
2. After next weeks options expiration we enter the roughly 3 week pre-earnings blackout period for stock buybacks. We, I think, have not had a major up move in years during this period, it is usually just the opposite.
3. Apparently managed CTA (Commodity Trading Accounts) use a 1 year mathematical model for investing. Yesterday their model triggered a move to short positions in the Russel. Because it is a one year model last years post sell-off rally will be moving the trigger points up and in a bout a week and a half the trigger to dump longs and go short will be within the current trading range. We saw what happened when the CTAs hit a sell point at the end of last year and triggered other mechanical systems.
4. Earnings season will be bad as foreign currency translations hurt non US results. Draghi tanked the Euro today and Williams (NY Fed) attempt to drop the dollar yesterday (we will match Euro Zone Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)) failed. High dollar makes foreign earnings worth less.
5. US Government is grid locked and no new meaningful (Tax or Investment) legislation will pass.
6. US will move into recession by end of year or early next so we are looking at the chairs waiting for the music to stop (Cakewalk metaphor) so waiting for some big funds to signal time to get out.