Cobra's Market View

I think I may be somewhat contrarian to the tone of the board at the moment.
With max pain at SPY=119, I am viewing the probable downside this week at maybe 117-119. The open interest could change to alter that, but I'll go with it for now.
I am inclined to be a buyer in that zone as I anticipate another push up to test the top and perhaps break through after OpEx.
Looking at the chart, I can see a good zone for a sell stop run below 119, but I am not sure how that would interplay with the OpEx dynamic.
I have taken profits on the SDS bought yesterday. So, I am now net long but OK enduring some more softness ahead.
Still have my short SPY stub and looking for a spot to close it.

This is a loose thesis and plan for the next week or so not a day trade. If there is a real breakdown here, I'll throw the hedge back on.

AK84 wrote:

Cobra wrote:

AK84 wrote:Hi Cobra,

Any comments today on ISRG or still not clear? Now looks a bit bearish right before earnings today ?

still doesn't say much.

Thanks Cobra! Sorry to bother u everyday with the same question...just having a hard time reading this thing!

Thanks

that's OK.

Sorry I'm not focused today, trying to find a way to integrate the phpbb login with the wordpress login so that you guys don't need register twice. the plugin seems not working. Anyone has any good idea about phpbb to wordpress solution?

buyorsell wrote:

Cobra wrote:

AK84 wrote:Hi Cobra,

Any comments today on ISRG or still not clear? Now looks a bit bearish right before earnings today ?

still doesn't say much.

The options show that the market is expecting a swing of 7-8%.

Yea i know but im trying to figure out which way its going to move...haha
initally i was bullish but the action last two days has me thinking again so im confuseddd!

I wonder if this is the start of wave B and should retrace nicely to 1204-1211

KENA wrote:

soku wrote:

KENA wrote:A hair better today but don't think I will do any trading may make to many mistakes.Did not add to my shorts wanted to but I am at my limit on shorts.Got to stay with my rules.We still have to break the 1190 area that might be hard today.If we do 1180 could be possible.Expect more of a side ways mkt.Util are in the red if they break down that could change things to the dn side.We will just wait and see.

yo what's going on? sick?
is yr son still in guangzhou? i will go there this weekend. i can take him out for a drink or something, if he feels comfortable hanging out with his dad's friend

Got some kind of bug and attitude not to good.Young son got back last fri.He had a good trip.His speeches went over ok.He took a long train trip and saw some of the country.He was surprised at how poor some of the areas are.Hope you have a good trip.How long are you going to be gone??Will here from you when you get back.

getting better man. as disclosed 2 weeks ago i am in china right now. that's why i only watch the first half of the game everyday. i will be back home for holiday season.

strong rebound, so should be 2 legged at least.

BullTart wrote:Big, juicy, bearish engulfing topping pattern.

The confirmation red bar today is looking very ominous.

Let's see what the bulls can do in the face of some dark clouds here. Never underestimate the imagination of the bulls.

How's that bearish engulfing when it's not even a higher high, close lower candlestick. Doesn't completely engulf.

tdo722 wrote:I wonder if this is the start of wave B and should retrace nicely to 1204-1211

I think so... 1208 ??

Gee, I wonder if the downleg is over.

head fake to clear out some shorts? Resume your regularly scheduled programming?

tdo722 wrote:

Cobra wrote:the next support is clear on 60 min chart as it's also Fib 23.6.

Hello cobra,

I've been wondering if you daytrade at all or just mainly swing?

Cheers,
Tdo722

nowadays I only DT trend day. one single shot on the trend day. trade only 90% winning rate setup. so about 2 or 3 times a month in the worst cases.

If I DT a lot, there won't be any comments here because I need focused.

Nomorework wrote:head fake to clear out some shorts? Resume your regularly scheduled programming?

headfake which way? might've been a headfake down...-_-

Cobra wrote:

tdo722 wrote:

Cobra wrote:the next support is clear on 60 min chart as it's also Fib 23.6.

Hello cobra,

I've been wondering if you daytrade at all or just mainly swing?

Cheers,
Tdo722

nowadays I only DT trend day. one single shot on the trend day. trade only 90% winning rate setup. so about 2 or 3 times a month in the worst cases.

If I DT a lot, there won't be any comments here because I need focused.

Thanks Cobra. You spend time for us.

SPX price dealing with down channel resistance and 15 min 20 MA at 1203, next stop horizontal r and 60 min 20MA at 1208.

First sell the rally spot, let see if the bull can hold here.

silicon_beaver wrote:

Cobra wrote:

tdo722 wrote:

Cobra wrote:the next support is clear on 60 min chart as it's also Fib 23.6.

Hello cobra,

I've been wondering if you daytrade at all or just mainly swing?

Cheers,
Tdo722

nowadays I only DT trend day. one single shot on the trend day. trade only 90% winning rate setup. so about 2 or 3 times a month in the worst cases.

If I DT a lot, there won't be any comments here because I need focused.

Thanks Cobra. You spend time for us.

Yes, I did make a lot of sacrifices.

BullBear52x wrote:First sell the rally spot, let see if the bull can hold here.

I am definitely in the sell the rally at this point. How many red hourly candlesticks that we saw yesterday?

megaphone on the 15 min chart. i am so confused as to who is going to win this battle.

Cobra wrote:

silicon_beaver wrote:

Cobra wrote:

tdo722 wrote:

Cobra wrote:the next support is clear on 60 min chart as it's also Fib 23.6.

Hello cobra,

I've been wondering if you daytrade at all or just mainly swing?

Cheers,
Tdo722

nowadays I only DT trend day. one single shot on the trend day. trade only 90% winning rate setup. so about 2 or 3 times a month in the worst cases.

If I DT a lot, there won't be any comments here because I need focused.

Thanks Cobra. You spend time for us.

Yes, I did make a lot of sacrifices.

What is your avg return yearly if u don't mind me asking?