03/19/2019 Live Update

[MrMiyagi]

Knock three times.

Come on trump, need a bullshit tweet to push this back up today.

[Trades with cats]

Come on trump, need a bullshit tweet to push this back up today.

I think they limited out all ready.

[te_fern]

Broke channel on the downside this afternoon. Fed day should be interesting....

[Trades with cats]

OK CTA's and other funds supposedly are now 100% long. Corporate cash drying up fast. Fed already went on 60 minutes, so again the only way they can re-ignite is to have Powell go on Good Morning America.

So without sarcasm Fed dovish is built in. Bigger chance of an error sounding like a hawk and tanking the market. Expect it will be a yawner, but you never know.

[Mr. BachNut]

Just an updated chart as of 3:45.

Hard reversal at the upper Keltner band and NYMO will close negative.
So, move up has been corrective and maybe a high is in.
Next down move could break March 8 lows.

I wasn't thinking about a post until after Fed day tomorrow, but we seem to be at an interesting juncture.

NYMO finally closed above the zero line yesterday.
A second close above zero today would make the end of the down cycle official.
A close below zero suggests the up move since 3/8 may just be corrective (price notwithstanding!). We shall see.

In terms of price, another day another gap open.
Theoretically, the index is a composite of prices for 500 stocks, but reality seems like folks in Europe/Asia buy the futures after hours and the open session sorts out how to reconcile the individual stocks to the index.
The soft NYMO suggests a lot of stocks are not going willingly...
The stack of open gaps below really seem piled up now and create vulnerability to a closing move IMO. Could be swift if it comes.

Price is getting close to a tag of the upper keltner band, which is declining.
Tags of the upper keltner validate the bull case technically even if they turn out to be near term resistance.
It would be nice to see the upper and lower bands continue to narrow to clarify a breakout later.

My short R2K runner was stopped out at breakeven, and my long SPX runner remains the survivor.
I have advanced the SPX stop to breakeven but may jam it if it looks like things are breaking down.

The attachment NYMO 031919.jpg is no longer available

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:52 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. FOMC tomorrow has been overwhelmingly bear friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you in another tread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp