03/22/2019 Live Update

[Cobra]

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no idea up or down from here. It's bears' last chance to make the double top so maybe they took the chance?

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/03 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

41ish is key support, if that fails, 34.5, 31 .......sell day so far.

[Trades with cats]

For some reason ES 2851 area turned into resistance around 7 AM eastern today.

[BullBear52x]

sitting out, let see 38-41 hold,

[BullBear52x]

Wew....I am buying now this is too far too fast.

buy 31

[BullBear52x]

We can rally all the way to the closed from here.

[ccash04]

Treasury move cannot be understated, 10-year yield has been nosediving. SPY could break below 280 if it is trying to catch down to 10-year yield. The fact that longer end is accelerating this morning is telling.

[BullBear52x]

I think I nailed LOD.

coffee time.......

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/03 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

a trade below Wednesday's LOD then I will be worry for this trend, for now HH and dip buying to continue. first thing first.

[Trades with cats]

According to the twitter feed we have inversion. Not sure if it has to be on a New York closing basis.
What it means is that the Fed has once again screwed up and proven they have zero credibility at forecasting. Track record is six of the last 6 times we will move to official recession. Average gap about 300 days. Oh the market is betting on a rate cut in the fourth quarter. First rate cut means we are 90 days out from recession.

[BullBear52x]

reverse to sell at 41.5, wow this is getting good.

[Trades with cats]

I do clearly remember watching the late great Louis Rukeyser responding to a rate inversion in an opening monologue by saying it had predicted 9 of the last 7 recessions, so I assume that why they only talk about the last 50 years on that indicator.

[BullBear52x]

Wishful thinking, I am on the RED right now.

[BullBear52x]

Bears walking stick.

[Mr. BachNut]

Still seeing weakness under the hood.

NYMO back negative and making lower lows this morning.
Yesterday, we had a small negative divergence with price breaking Tuesday's high but NYMO falling short.
So, a price pullback today is fair.

Another day, another gap. Down this time with price painting an inside day at the moment.
I am starting to day dream about an ascending wedge.
Given the trouble NYMO has above SPX 2790, it is plausible that price joggles up for awhile before dropping back down to value.
That said, the 2880 gap target above is also coming into view and could act as a magnet in due course.
As usual, I don't have a clue what will happen.
If I see an ABC down with this drop today and an ABC up in days ahead (to close today's gap), I'll get more keen about the wedge idea.

I still have an SPX long runner with a breakeven stop.
I am feeling bearish and would like to jam the stop, but I will try to do nothing.
I do not have any short setups cued up at the moment.

[Mr. BachNut]

I do not have any short setups cued up at the moment.

Correction: The Russell 2000 may need some attention.

[BullBear52x]

a breakdown here is not good, 17-20ish is next support zone.

[Cobra]

possible mm.