Cobra's Market View

ultramarine wrote:

seekingknowledge wrote:Hey, Ultramarine (if you are still there), Did you get into a short today? Was just wondering if you tried to use the stochastics approach. I personally bought TZA using stochastics, but I cheated and got in a little before it hit 20.

Naturally, I would be interested in the details of your cheatin' trade. When did you get in?

Sure. I put my buy order in at 33.75 -- before the break-out of the base and base stochastics hit 20. This is always risky, but I was ready to step out if I had to. Here is a print screen of information that may help you. Another reason to put order in early: The price might take off without you.

seekingknowledge wrote:

ultramarine wrote:

seekingknowledge wrote:Hey, Ultramarine (if you are still there), Did you get into a short today? Was just wondering if you tried to use the stochastics approach. I personally bought TZA using stochastics, but I cheated and got in a little before it hit 20.

Naturally, I would be interested in the details of your cheatin' trade. When did you get in?

Sure. I put my buy order in at 33.75 -- before the break-out of the base and base stochastics hit 20. This is always risky, but I was ready to step out if I had to. Here is a print screen of information that may help you. Another reason to put order in early: The price might take off without you.

Example3 to go long.png

Fantastic. Thanks. It really does seem to work better with the 3 min cross. Never would have guessed that. Excellent point about the STO hitting 20. It definitely saved you from a premature entry. So you bought in at 2.03 on that long green candle. Nicely done!

I assume you are holding overnight. How common is it for you to get stopped out on a gap down in such a situation? If your stop is fairly close, then a 1% gap down on the SPY (=3% gap on TZA) might well end the trade. Any thoughts on this?

For comparison's sake, here's what was happening on the SPY 15 min chart. We had the crossover in the 10/20 ema in the 3 min and the 15 min chart throughout the day. But you can see that STO crossed below the 80 line right after the open and stayed there all day.

The TZA chart worked great for you in this case, but I know there are some people who like to refer to the SPY chart as a baseline chart since the leveraged ETFs can distort price action. I'm not one of them, but I did think this difference was interesting.

Or maybe I'm just trying to justify why I added my short position shortly after the open.

ultramarine wrote:

SPY.short.study.png

For comparison's sake, here's what was happening on the SPY 15 min chart. We had the crossover in the 10/20 ema in the 3 min and the 15 min chart throughout the day. But you can see that STO crossed below the 80 line right after the open and stayed there all day.

The TZA chart worked great for you in this case, but I know there are some people who like to refer to the SPY chart as a baseline chart since the leveraged ETFs can distort price action. I'm not one of them, but I did think this difference was interesting.

Or maybe I'm just trying to justify why I added my short position shortly after the open.

Sorry for responding so late. I was packing. We are going on vacation tomorrow. I use the IWM (based on Russell) as my baseline and I keep a 5-min chart of it updated throughout the day. The SPY has nothing to do with TZA, as TZA is based on the Russell. It depends on what you're trading. It is important to know what the asset that your ETF is based on is doing.

Fantastic. Thanks. It really does seem to work better with the 3 min cross. Never would have guessed that. Excellent point about the STO hitting 20. It definitely saved you from a premature entry. So you bought in at 2.03 on that long green candle. Nicely done!

I assume you are holding overnight. How common is it for you to get stopped out on a gap down in such a situation? If your stop is fairly close, then a 1% gap down on the SPY (=3% gap on TZA) might well end the trade. Any thoughts on this?[/quote]

Yes, I am holding overnight. It is not common for me to get stopped out on this type of trade. Knock on wood when I say that ... and cross fingers ... and give sign of cross! I don't allow myself to usually take more than a 1% loss on a trade. If a gap happens, that changes things. Depending on where a gap occurred, I might stay in the trade if, for example, I have a degree of confidence that the gap will be filled. Every trade and every situation is different.

ultramarine wrote:

seekingknowledge wrote:

ultramarine wrote:

seekingknowledge wrote:Hey, Ultramarine (if you are still there), Did you get into a short today? Was just wondering if you tried to use the stochastics approach. I personally bought TZA using stochastics, but I cheated and got in a little before it hit 20.

Naturally, I would be interested in the details of your cheatin' trade. When did you get in?

Sure. I put my buy order in at 33.75 -- before the break-out of the base and base stochastics hit 20. This is always risky, but I was ready to step out if I had to. Here is a print screen of information that may help you. Another reason to put order in early: The price might take off without you.

Example3 to go long.png

Fantastic. Thanks. It really does seem to work better with the 3 min cross. Never would have guessed that. Excellent point about the STO hitting 20. It definitely saved you from a premature entry. So you bought in at 2.03 on that long green candle. Nicely done!

I assume you are holding overnight. How common is it for you to get stopped out on a gap down in such a situation? If your stop is fairly close, then a 1% gap down on the SPY (=3% gap on TZA) might well end the trade. Any thoughts on this?

Yes, I am holding overnight. It is not common for me to get stopped out on this type of trade. Knock on wood when I say that ... and cross fingers ... and give sign of cross! I don't allow myself to usually take more than a 1% loss on a trade. If a gap happens, that changes things. Depending on where a gap occurred, I might stay in the trade if, for example, I have a degree of confidence that the gap will be filled. Every trade and every situation is different.

just finished watching a charlie rose interview with walter isaccson, the biographer for steve jobs. very worth while one’s time.
http://www.charlierose.com/schedule/