Cobra's Market View

VWAP has been reached, so on paper the Goldman buyback desk will be more cautious.

Trades with cats wrote:VWAP has been reached, so on paper the Goldman buyback desk will be more cautious.

Why would buyback desks care about the overall market VWAP?

Wouldn't each company (CFO) be more interested in whether their individual stocks were being bought back above/below VWAP for that symbol?

You are of course correct but on a regular but not consistent bases the index reacts with the index VWAP. If I was trading individual stocks like Apple or Cisco with large buybacks I sure would have VWAP on my charts.

VWAP is the dark blue dash dot line interacting with price. Curvy cyan dash dot is the mid point for the day.

They used to say if whom ever won the Indy 500 had a 3 pound salami on the side of their car next year every car will have a salami. So since all the pro's use VWAP and the mid I am also. Sometimes it has meaning, but not always.

Let me finish that thought. The market follows patterns but it is not consistent. If it was some AI program could replace Cobra. I don't think that will ever happen.

I'm not sure whether the low was in or not.

Trades with cats wrote:...
VWAP is the ... salami ...

Salami indicator - I like it

Really big out of balance in the DOM with 2,280 buy orders at 2915.50

And poof they have been absorbed.

Bounce to the EMA20. Taking a break ...

Coolbiz posted today that the kiss of 2900 should be the low and it is on to new highs. I am not so ceretain. It is a powerful double zeo level and I am thinking we need a second if not a third test.

Once again lumpy DOM with 3,300 combined buy order at ES 2911.25 and 2911.50

HAPPY HOUR

Trades with cats wrote:Coolbiz posted today that the kiss of 2900 should be the low and it is on to new highs. I am not so ceretain. It is a powerful double zeo level and I am thinking we need a second if not a third test.

Also, knowing he said yesterday that the rally might be over and he was short ES. So, we are definitely in an inflection zone....

Inflection is the word for it. For all intents and purposes earnings is over. (Bloomberg chart showing the FANG 6 responsible for 100 percent of change in MSCI world index last 16 months). Fed has failed to follow through with a cut. Bond market is saying trouble ahead. Consumer is responding to Trump single handedly raising gas by not saving. So now market has to decide if multiple expansion is justified without Fed lowering rates. We will see.

Our Wonder Boy Charlie McElligott "writes in an ad hoc note this afternoon"
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... quity-dump

Since the general public has proven track record over the last year of only buying at the top and of course selling the declines where is the 9 billion going to come from for the Uber IPO, especially with Musk grabbing 2 billion from people who don't care for profits or business plans (can't be that many of those out there with money, but PT Barnum would be proud of Musk). Then I saw today's amazing results from the Vegan IPO market. They sacrificed the insiders to whip up the IPO fever among the general public. So bring on the Uber!

Pasta Boss- just makes you glad you arn't investing in a CTA. Since their models are so easily copied by quants with deepish pockets then they are easily manipulated by broker dealers with unlimited access to Fed money as an ace up the sleeve. Right up there with advising clients or going on CNBC.

By the way will Melissa Lee's husband be pumping Tesla again tonight?

I think it is a spike and channel all going down. Could easily reverse at 8:30 tomorrow or with Fed comments who knows what a good or a bad report will mean. Big thing to me is we did not fill out that tail from yesterday's sell off, instead lower lows and lower POC. Admit the profile says price could easily rip up or down tomorrow.