Cobra's Market View

Bounce to the EMA20. Off for the next couple of days. Maybe check in on the tablet. Have a good one.

HAPPY HOUR

Looks like a valid double bottom to me but really need the higher low higher high confirmation.

Even as the S&P hit new all time highs, Bank of America's strategist Jill Carey Hall writes that last week, during which the S&P 500 was up +0.2%,
virtually everyone sold stocks, as "Institutional clients, hedge funds and private clients sold the highs in equities last week."
And yet, somehow the S&P hit a new all time high.
According to BofA's stock repurchase desk, "buybacks last week were their highest since early Feb: they tend to be strong during earnings seasons and seasonally peak in mid/late May. Buybacks YTD are +20% YoY, though the growth rate continues to decline."

Got the higher low, waiting for the move on up, if it happens.

Waiting for the rug pull and preparing stink bids, close today should be fun.

Piece at Seeking Alpha notes that Apple is spending double their free cash flow this year on buybacks. Will, by the end of this quarter draw cash net of debt to below 100 billion. That article saying Cook trying to buy time with the market until services can really ramp. I think a lot of buyback firms have no second act other that retire and let the next CEO take the fall like GE.

Got higher high but not by much. Need a 20 point ramp express into the close. More likely in my opinion we just get a slow grind to make the day go away for bulls.

Trades with cats wrote:Got higher high but not by much. Need a 20 point ramp express into the close. More likely in my opinion we just get a slow grind to make the day go away for bulls.

Would be really surprised if we slow grinded into the close. Today is a day we should slam into the close either up or down, my thinking is down due to yesterday appearing to be a giant bull trap.

VIX being up 35% in a day usually leads to crazy closes vs the usual drip drip into close.

Ah Charlie Boy apparently nailed it with his models. Blame the CTA's and Gamma Hedging. Say we have seen this before late last year.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05- ... gamma-zone

Best yet on VIX is when shorting it is a top hedge fund trade. Best demo of that is ask two large guys to leave the room at the same time when only one fits the doorway.

McElligott saying, in regard to the next wave of selling-
S&P 500, 100.0% long into today but ‘spot’ is currently through the sell-trigger level (note: needs to HOLD & CLOSE below), selling under 2894.82 to get to 60% as both the 2w and 1m signals “flip” to SELL, more selling under 2642.11 to get to -100%, flip to short under 2642.41, max short under 2642.11

So if I am reading correctly if the dip buyers from yesterday who got creamed in the overnight don't come in soon we will keep waterfalling down as the two week and one month models generate more selling. So Coolbiz down side targets are possible. And of course when this happened this fall the Fed did noting to stop it. Supposedly it took Munchkin.

So tighten your belts it could be a bumpy ride.

Ramp Express 12 minutes late.

well, guess that's it for today. here's what Wednesday looks like. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

Tarriff note: My understanding is that exisiting tarriffs will go from 10% to 25%, which is a 15% increase. On items that were already exposed to tarriff levies.

Tarriffs on additional categories is a separate threat, not as imminent as this Friday.

Ramp Express moved 24 points in 20 minutes to get the market back to VWAP . Maybe a coincidence. Ask Goldman's buyback desk to be sure.

Trades with cats wrote:Ramp Express moved 24 points in 20 minutes to get the market back to VWAP . Maybe a coincidence. Ask Goldman's buyback desk to be sure.

The desk said 'yes', of course it's a coincidence! LOL!