05/09/2019 Live Update

[Cobra]

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no idea up or down from here. the selling seems weaker this time though comparing with the previous few legs down.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/05 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/05 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4.8x
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 5.7x

[Mr. BachNut]

Another day, another gap. Now we are doing them to the downside.

NYMO is now in the turn zone.
So, time to start watching for turn signs even though price could drop further.
Closure of that April 1 gap beckons, but there are probably a lot of shorts waiting for that.
Perhaps a squeeze to shake out weak hands before that target is hit. I don't know.
On the other hand, crashy times come in oversold conditions.

Next week is OPEX. So, a Thursday/Friday low and bounce next week would not surprise.

We have busted but are in the neighborhood of the middle keltner and 50 day MA.
There is usually some support around here either for a turn or to consolidate for a while.
If not, maybe a scary trip to the 200 day and lower keltner comes...

I am short SPX and R2K.
SPX is a runner, and I am looking to scale in R2K.
I may jam stops if there is some positive news announcement.

[Mr. BachNut]

Also noteworthy, there is a VIX gap target at 25.45.
VIX often does two peaks.
So if this market continues, it may go straight there or pull back first.

[Cobra]

maybe it's a downtrend day?

[Mr. BachNut]

That April 1 gap has closed for SPX futures, which may explain some covering here.
The gap is still open for the index and SPY.

[Al_Dente]

Guru McElligott is still hot:
Yesterday:
"...we are inching-ever-nearer to the time to start thinking about tactical expressions to capture Equities upside via options …
but not quite yet..."

[Cobra]

downtrend day not confirmed yet. break the low with good looking bear bar then it's downtrend day. strong rebound here then it's range day.

[Al_Dente]

VOLATILITY
The top panel, VVIX/VIX, is McElligott’s Ratio (volatility of volatility ratioed to VIX)
Note that his ratio called the 21 September high early (on 4 September, see thick red arrow), using my arbitrary 13/34ma cross as the signal.
His ratio, on 5/7 suggested more down to come… which was part of the reason why he said “not quite yet..." for longs
(obviously that can change based on trade news)

[Al_Dente]

$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4.8x
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 5.7x

4.1x
5.4x
still bear

[Al_Dente]

Today:
McElligott: "VVIX never lies"
He thinks “CTAs are sharply losing faith in the rally and accelerating their deleveraging, most notably the Russell 2000, where trend-followers are now -100% max short
His model would begin covering [$RUT] on a close above 1563

[Al_Dente]

BOTTOM PANEL: I would like to see more put buying… to the extreme… before calling a bottom
But note: !PCRATCBO is EOD (end-of-day quote) so we won’t know the truth there until the close

[Al_Dente]

CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET
UBER prices after the close, IPO tomorrow

[Al_Dente]

$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4.8x
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 5.7x

4.1x
5.4x
still bear

1.9x
1.6x
sorry bears

[K447]

CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET
...

What a strange headline. Talks (and tactics) are happening all the time, at multiple levels.

Deadlines abound

[Al_Dente]

CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET...

What a strange headline. Talks (and tactics) are happening all the time, at multiple levels.
Deadlines abound

Reporter on the WH lawn said potus was at another meeting, and the China guy was scheduled to come to the WH at 5 pm ET

[K447]

CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET...

What a strange headline. Talks (and tactics) are happening all the time, at multiple levels.
Deadlines abound

Reporter on the WH lawn said potus was at another meeting, and the China guy was scheduled to come to the WH at 5 pm ET

Tweets are what moves this market. And they can happen anytime. Like, just a few minutes ago

[Cobra]

here's the bear's last chance for today.