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05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 9:23 am
by Cobra
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no idea up or down from here. the selling seems weaker this time though comparing with the previous few legs down.

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 9:27 am
by Cobra

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:03 am
by Cobra

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:10 am
by Al_Dente
$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4.8x
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 5.7x

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:23 am
by Mr. BachNut
Another day, another gap. Now we are doing them to the downside.

NYMO is now in the turn zone.
So, time to start watching for turn signs even though price could drop further.
Closure of that April 1 gap beckons, but there are probably a lot of shorts waiting for that.
Perhaps a squeeze to shake out weak hands before that target is hit. I don't know.
On the other hand, crashy times come in oversold conditions.

Next week is OPEX. So, a Thursday/Friday low and bounce next week would not surprise.

We have busted but are in the neighborhood of the middle keltner and 50 day MA.
There is usually some support around here either for a turn or to consolidate for a while.
If not, maybe a scary trip to the 200 day and lower keltner comes... :shock:

I am short SPX and R2K.
SPX is a runner, and I am looking to scale in R2K.
I may jam stops if there is some positive news announcement.

NYMO 050919.jpg

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:32 am
by Mr. BachNut
Also noteworthy, there is a VIX gap target at 25.45.
VIX often does two peaks.
So if this market continues, it may go straight there or pull back first.

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:40 am
by Cobra
maybe it's a downtrend day?

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:51 am
by Mr. BachNut
That April 1 gap has closed for SPX futures, which may explain some covering here.
The gap is still open for the index and SPY.

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 11:04 am
by Al_Dente
Guru McElligott is still hot:
Yesterday:
"...we are inching-ever-nearer to the time to start thinking about tactical expressions to capture Equities upside via options …
but not quite yet..."

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 11:16 am
by Cobra
downtrend day not confirmed yet. break the low with good looking bear bar then it's downtrend day. strong rebound here then it's range day.

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 11:23 am
by Al_Dente
VOLATILITY
The top panel, VVIX/VIX, is McElligott’s Ratio (volatility of volatility ratioed to VIX)
Note that his ratio called the 21 September high early (on 4 September, see thick red arrow), using my arbitrary 13/34ma cross as the signal.
His ratio, on 5/7 suggested more down to come… which was part of the reason why he said “not quite yet..." for longs
(obviously that can change based on trade news)

59vol of vol.png.png

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 11:42 am
by Al_Dente
Al_Dente wrote:$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4.8x
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 5.7x

4.1x
5.4x
still bear

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 11:50 am
by Al_Dente
Today:
McElligott: "VVIX never lies"
He thinks “CTAs are sharply losing faith in the rally and accelerating their deleveraging, most notably the Russell 2000, where trend-followers are now -100% max short
His model would begin covering [$RUT] on a close above 1563

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 12:29 pm
by Al_Dente
BOTTOM PANEL: I would like to see more put buying… to the extreme… before calling a bottom
But note: !PCRATCBO is EOD (end-of-day quote) so we won’t know the truth there until the close
59puts.png.png

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 12:32 pm
by Al_Dente
CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET
UBER prices after the close, IPO tomorrow

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 12:41 pm
by Al_Dente
Al_Dente wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:$NYDEC:$NYADV = 4.8x
$NYDNV:$NYUPV = 5.7x

4.1x
5.4x
still bear

1.9x
1.6x
sorry bears

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 12:43 pm
by K447
Al_Dente wrote:CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET
...


What a strange headline. Talks (and tactics) are happening all the time, at multiple levels.

Deadlines abound

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 12:48 pm
by Al_Dente
K447 wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET...


What a strange headline. Talks (and tactics) are happening all the time, at multiple levels.
Deadlines abound

Reporter on the WH lawn said potus was at another meeting, and the China guy was scheduled to come to the WH at 5 pm ET

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 12:51 pm
by K447
Al_Dente wrote:
K447 wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:CNBC
China talks start tonight 5 pm ET...


What a strange headline. Talks (and tactics) are happening all the time, at multiple levels.
Deadlines abound

Reporter on the WH lawn said potus was at another meeting, and the China guy was scheduled to come to the WH at 5 pm ET


Tweets are what moves this market. And they can happen anytime. Like, just a few minutes ago :lol:

Re: 05/09/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2019 2:47 pm
by Cobra
here's the bear's last chance for today.