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05/22/2019 Live Update

Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed May 22, 2019 1:10 pm

/ES Hourly, clear breakdown, this time will go deeper I hope.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed May 22, 2019 1:14 pm

Supports
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed May 22, 2019 1:17 pm

Cash SPX, not a typical HnS
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed May 22, 2019 1:37 pm

A look at past and current Bloom and Gloom, US market always came out ahead after bubble pops but pop she will.....
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 22, 2019 1:43 pm

Last night looks normal as in express elevator down followed by the escalator up. But when it started to head south mid morning something triggered a big spike up which failed to turn things around. Then yet another spike, this one a two leg move going into the Euro zone close and then yet another escalator down.

If I didn't know any better I would think they switched the rules back to declining markets punctuated with violent short covering rallies.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Al_Dente » Wed May 22, 2019 1:44 pm

FOMC minutes at 2 pm, right?
Will there be a presser?
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed May 22, 2019 1:45 pm

A resistance line...
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed May 22, 2019 1:46 pm

Another sell the rip here. same playbook.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby BullBear52x » Wed May 22, 2019 1:48 pm

Cash index.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 22, 2019 1:49 pm

2nd spike up to VWAP in 2 hours and it looks like a repeat pattern so far, waiting for the second leg to fire. I admit drawing trendlines today has been beyond my ability but you do what you can.
ES 06-19 (2000 Tick) 2019_05_22 (11_45_59 AM).png
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 22, 2019 1:51 pm

ES 06-19 (2000 Tick) 2019_05_22 (11_48_47 AM).png

Sorry didn't realize I had posted a tiny image.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 22, 2019 1:54 pm

From the Evil Site:

Additionally, here is the take from Nomura's Charlie McElligott who warns that today's Minutes have "potential for actual relevance" for the following reasons:

Potential for further clarity on Powell’s recent characterization of inflation weakness as “transitory”
There too is potential for an update on Fed balance-sheet normalization—recall, QT is “still a thing” currently (keeping USD “bid” with b/s runoff, policy rates at 11y highs and increased Treasury issuance acting to restrict USD liquidity), but shifts to QE-Lite in Oct; thus we could hear more about the Fed’s vision for the composition of the balance-sheet and the concept of something where purchases look “reverse operation twist”-like by being concentrated into T-Bills in order to shorten WAM and steepen curve
Finally, we should be on the lookout for any further developments on a standing repo facility as a long-term solution to ease the current / recurring funding squeeze dynamic—as this mechanism would allow for USTs to be “fungible” into Reserves if required “on demand,” helping in periods of “tighter” funding rates
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed May 22, 2019 1:56 pm

Is this a bull trap with the Fed minutes coming shortly????
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 22, 2019 1:59 pm

In English the repo facility change would be an acknowledgement that we have a major liquidity crisis and the Treasury is crowding out private sector as the Chinese dump their holdings and Congress tries to up spending.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 22, 2019 2:00 pm

Thank-you te-fern for your trendline, makes me feel much better about mine.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Trades with cats » Wed May 22, 2019 2:04 pm

Well no surprises in that. Clearly did not hit any algo trigger words.
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed May 22, 2019 2:14 pm

Trades with cats wrote:Thank-you te-fern for your trendline, makes me feel much better about mine.


:D
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed May 22, 2019 2:16 pm

Looks like a general backtest and now can't decide what to do....
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby te_fern » Wed May 22, 2019 2:34 pm

Now it's making a move...
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Re: 05/22/2019 Live Update

Postby Daniel » Wed May 22, 2019 3:06 pm

SPY price = 5day SMA = 8day EMA... both MAs now flatline.

An inflection point, with a sharp move either way likely.
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