Cobra's Market View

Mr. BachNut wrote: There is a gap target just a bit lower, which should close.

Gap closed.

I have some P-bars from last week lurking 3-4 handles below today's lows.
If we clean those up today, some oversold bounce set-ups could develop for the next few days.
Caveat is that things can get crashy from oversold conditions too.
Let's see what happens.

K447 wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Today, overly simplified:
Folks are either confused or afraid or both ...

Is there a tracking chart for uncertainty?

One of the “experts” on CNBC said earlier, to an extended drumroll:
My favorite BUY is cash.
Posted days ago: As of May 14, the flow into “money-market funds rose $16.6 billion to $3.1 trillion (courtesy of ICI).

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote: There is a gap target just a bit lower, which should close.

Gap closed.

I have some P-bars from last week lurking 3-4 handles below today's lows.

Well, that was quick. P-Bars tagged and oversold conditions registered.
I will be watching for short time frame setups that could have me put on some long hedges against my shorts, which are on longer time frames.
Have to see what comes.

We could also see lower price lows ahead with a positive NYMO divergence.

Al_Dente wrote:

K447 wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Today, overly simplified:
Folks are either confused or afraid or both ...

Is there a tracking chart for uncertainty?

One of the “experts” on CNBC said earlier, to an extended drumroll:
My favorite BUY is cash.
...

I am over 90% cash now, this wrestling match seems to be just getting started.

Two global powers coming to grips with how long term this developing cage match might need to run.

Imagine a trading future where 'global power' moves and counter moves are always possible, often pending, and mostly uncertain. The news stream will be endless and withering.

opportunities for double bottoms here ....
daily
ignore vertical lines
[edited chart]

Overnight gap down on DIA, IWM, QQQ and SPY. Not even a bounce to the EMA20.

HAPPY HOUR

Big picture.

Pullback from the high. Bounces to the EMA20. Failure at resistance. Another pullback and gap down. Danger area.

suddenly a good news? the low should be in now.

I have a difficult time thinking the rip up was just because of the emergency relief bill getting approval. I do think oversold condition followed by a spark of news equals lift off. And as Cobra has pointed out in down markets an up move is usually violent and unpredictable. But if anybody on this forum was short without a tight stop after bouncing on the low for over a half hour they really need to do some homework.

Once again the area of the overnight low (2 points below) showed itself as a significant level.

Trades with cats wrote:... if anybody on this forum was short without a tight stop after bouncing on the low for over a half hour they really need to do some homework.

SPY and QQQ went inside on the 60, 1:30 - 2:30 bar EDT

Then went 3 (took out both sides) on the next 60, broadening formation to take out the longs and trigger/trap new shorts right on the 3 o'clock 30 minute bar, inside on the five minute, then whipsaw up the other way.

Cobra wrote:suddenly a good news? the low should be in now.

Trump speech about farmer bailout giving the drugs to market junkies, also keeps saying that he'll meet with Xi at the G20 and still mistakenly thinks that they are paying the tariffs (we all know the US consumer is but Trump is too conceited to understand reality).

well, guess that's it for today. here's what Friday looks like. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

ES daily. For the optimists. Touching bottom? Not so sure. But the market is resilient.

MrMiyagi wrote:... paying the tariffs (we all know the US consumer is ...

The 'costs' of the first China tariffs at 10% I suspect were spread across the China manufacturers and exporters, the US importers and perhaps some of the US distribution chain. Reduced their profit margins quite a lot. So the retail/consumer did not see the full effect.

The bump to 25% is too much for those guys to 'eat' so they will be forced to pass on the tariff costs to the retail channels. Some anticipatory inventory build ups will have happened so again the full effect into end consumer pricing will be delayed. But it is coming ...