Weekend Watering

[BullBear52x]

First chart is bullish Pitchfork out look, close to the top could turn any day.
second chart is Fib retracements now sit on 23.6/76.4% max out could turn down now
Last chart a pull back Fib target 76.4% 124.34

For the counter trend trading I see a turn has start on Friday on all SPY QQQ DIA and IWM

intraday, here is my line in the sand, yellow is my BUY/SELL line, a trade below 127.97 I will aim at 125ish

Here is Bull break out that Bears should not take it lightly 122ish will be a hell of support shorterm. and look at current RSI here, there is no sign that bulls want to give in until we broke below 50. GLTA

[waverider]

Nice charts everyone! It looks like FXP may have found long term lateral support here, or at least is quite close. Any feedback appreciated.

[BullBear52x]

The attachment fxp.png is no longer available

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Nice charts everyone! It looks like FXP may have found long term lateral support here, or at least is quite close. Any feedback appreciated.

Use EEM to chart out for EDC/EDZ and FXI/FXP, try it you will like it more, look at the HI and the LO of these pairs, charting 3x etfs longer than a week time frame is no no for me IMHO

[waverider]

Thanks BullBear, it looks like EEM is at resistance as well. Would you buy FXP at this level or wait for further confirmation?

[BullBear52x]

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Thanks BullBear, it looks like EEM is at resistance as well. Would you buy FXP at this level or wait for further confirmation?

I got in EDZ already so the answer will be yes, Stop out will be when EEM trades above 43.

[BullBear52x]

Look at XLF if you trade FAS/FAZ, I have no position on them, XLF is in nuetral state by my gauge. bearish MACD crossed nicely but at the last hour on Friday, RSI is creeping back up over 50, very positive since RSI is leading MACD based on my setting below but until MACD turning back positive before I would call for more upside ahead. That's it for me got to go.

[cougar]

Hello BullBear! Very nice posts today!
XLF and in particular the previously much-beaten GS, outperformed SPY during the latest 7 trading days:

[cougar]

Whether fundamentally legitimate or not, this was an SPX breakout and we have to accepted it, as BullBear pointed out as soon as it happened.
Here is its confirmation on the 60 min chart, using criteria detailed last weekend:

[cougar]

I would say: so far, no signs of weakness after the breakout.
“Steady she goes” with a high level consolidation during the second day:

[cougar]

An October to remember appears striking on the weekly chart.
Time for a correction?
”Yes, a small correction would be healthy…” say the talking heads.
“The beginning of the big W3 DOWN...” say the Wavy-Gravy EW technicians, starting with Bob P.

I have my own indicator: when Flabby Abby will appear on TV to tell us stories about SPX 1600 around the corner…it will be time to consider a serious downturn…

[xfradnex]

The attachment fxp.png is no longer available

The attachment fxp60.png is no longer available

Nice charts everyone! It looks like FXP may have found long term lateral support here, or at least is quite close. Any feedback appreciated.

Not that I know anything. I like to look at the inverse charts for support levels. In this case XPP. It appears that XPP is trying to burn through the support levels on the enclosed chart. Per Cobra the humans need to try twice to break a support level. There is only one try here. But other than that point. it looks like a very good case for the stock to go to the other side of the channel. Note the volume spike. Maybe exhaustion?

[xfradnex]

An October to remember appears striking on the weekly chart.
Time for a correction?
”Yes, a small correction would be healthy…” say the talking heads.
“The beginning of the big W3 DOWN...” say the Wavy-Gravy EW technicians, starting with Bob P.

I have my own indicator: when Flabby Abby will appear on TV to tell us stories about SPX 1600 around the corner…it will be time to consider a serious downturn…

I like your charts/calls. I agree on the breakout. My main concern, is that the govt will not pass the budget again, creating another situation like 3 months ago. This situation may be more predictable than other normal market forces. It is my opinion that the government is trying to contain market volitility by making well timed economic anouncements (for the good of the country). They do not want the markets to get to hot or cold. They do not want any sustained large moves up in the market because it would be a set up for a larger move in the down direction (causing panic). Beyond the buget, there seems to multiple revisions of employment/economic figures that can be played with(delayed) with some degree, to influence market momentum to keep us somewhat range bound. All in All, there are small breakouts and large breakouts. I have a feeling this one will be clipped in the next couple of weeks with the gov't budget battle.

[gibbledygook]

Bill Bonner thinks the Thursday move is largely explicable by the destruction of the CDS market as per his explanation:

Let's say you bought credit default swaps on a certain bank's debt (let's use JPMorgan, but it could be any bank) because you think that Morgan is exposed to too much credit default swap risk. Just in case. Now, if (say) Goldman sold you the CDS, they could and would in turn hedge their risk by shorting some quantity of Morgan stock, or perhaps if the risk was sizeable enough, the S&P as a whole. It would depend on what their risk models suggested.

But as of yesterday, the risk evaporated: there would be no CDS event. So why buy CDS? Time to cover. And then the shorts get covered.

Destroying the CDS market may have a number of unintended consequences so keep looking at peripheral government yields this week, they may not signal a sanguine bond market.

[99er]

Good Morning.

The Euro is not looking strong and the "risk trade' (AUDJPY) looks set for a correction on their four-hour charts.

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/eurusd_30.html
AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/audjpy_30.html

And while I don't usually chart the VIX, here's a daily Wolfe Wave where the target "6" is way off the chart.

VIX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/vix.html

For the 15-minute SPX, there may be a correction down to the lower channel line (gold) or to the short-term WW targets (magenta, purple and red). If prices rebound at these levels, then they may go all the way up to the previously discussed blue line. If they cut through these levels, then we're really going to rock n' roll.

SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_30.html

GLTA.

[rocstocktrader]

Stock market article: “The Unfortunate Truth About An Overbought Stock Market”

http://stk.ly/qYFCaS

[cougar]

Thank you “xfradnex“. I agree…this breakout “will be clipped”. The question is: if THEY will try to give us the feeling (during the next 2-3 trading days) that the up-move still has some “oomph” in it, how high could it go without encountering a major resistance? And: is this potential continuation going to be tradable?
That is why I am looking for higher targets. One of them is suggested by the SPY Gann Fan, which worked, so far, better than expected:

[cougar]

Something funny about AAPL:
It turns out that the Fibonacci Harmonic Fan which best punctuates the recent price movements has its origin at the bottom of the “flash-crash” of May 6, which is considered by the “cognoscenti” to be a meaningless anomaly. Makes you wonder…

[BullBear52x]

An October to remember appears striking on the weekly chart.
Time for a correction?
”Yes, a small correction would be healthy…” say the talking heads.
“The beginning of the big W3 DOWN...” say the Wavy-Gravy EW technicians, starting with Bob P.

I have my own indicator: when Flabby Abby will appear on TV to tell us stories about SPX 1600 around the corner…it will be time to consider a serious downturn…

Thanks cougar great charts and analysis as always, I think everyone here are at awe of the move from recent low until now both bulls and bears alike, 99er is pressing hard on a turn, Cobra agreed this is not sustainable, others think new 52 week high is not if but when, Flabby Abby got mentioned, Dow 3600 is in the talk again and the best of it all, NO one dare to call out a TOP. capitulation? hibernation? or bears are totally death? and to think that any longs trader to hold out on the gain this much this long is unthinkable some one got to take profit at some point that I am sure, I am guessing this coming week also sounds like we are all on the same boat again? not good the 1% like to poke fun at the 99% from times to times.

[waverider]

Appreciate it BullBear, looks like XLF and FAS can get away from each other occasionally.

fxp.png

fxp60.png

Nice charts everyone! It looks like FXP may have found long term lateral support here, or at least is quite close. Any feedback appreciated.

Not that I know anything. I like to look at the inverse charts for support levels. In this case XPP. It appears that XPP is trying to burn through the support levels on the enclosed chart. Per Cobra the humans need to try twice to break a support level. There is only one try here. But other than that point. it looks like a very good case for the stock to go to the other side of the channel. Note the volume spike. Maybe exhaustion?

It definitely looks like the path of least resistance is down. Thanks for the input!

[BullBear52x]

[quote="waverider"]Appreciate it BullBear, looks like XLF and FAS can get away from each other occasionally.

[quote="xfradnex"][quote="waverider"]

fxp.png

Right, but I find XLF as best candidate to chart out to trade FAS/FAZ, charting out Bull etfs is not so bad as charting out the Bear etfs they so skew on pricing decay. I chart IWM to trade TNA/TZA then again our time frame and expectation may be differ, I just found out that it's best to chart main index to trade 3x etfs.

Edited: Also sell short the pair is better than buying. ie: if you want to buy TNA, sell short TZA is my choice or vice versa.