Cobra's Market View

Official settlement price on the ES is at 2780 but that is the 4:15 close. Cash market I am guessing at ES 2782.50 so I am guessing at gap closed. Next lower target is of course the overnight low at ES 2776.75.

Trades with cats wrote:I love candle volume. I also love tick charts without equal bar spacing. I gave up on both for day trading because they really mess with your ability to draw trend lines. But I do say that daily view type view looks good.

Thanks boss
So of course I had to try candlevolume on intraday (this is 15min).
And I found something quite surprising: all the big volume spikes hit at 3:45 pm each day (15:45).
(pink volume spikes above 9 million shares)
So, any value in that revelation? Hmmmm ... I’m still studying that…

Ah ha, you must consult your railway time table. Ramp express is scheduled for 3:30 and reaches it's destination at 3:45. You are seeing everyone getting off the train after pocketing their easy 5 points.

An hour of consolidation should be enough, but no, market says it needs more time to make up it's mind.

maybe the range low was in, will test the range high which likely would be the day high.

Bonus chart.

This descending wedge in R2K futures is beautifully formed and another reason why I am watchful for a bullish turn.
SPX has one too but not as well formed.
Today, so far, is an inside day. So, tomorrow could be interesting.
(These things can break downward too, which would be scary.)

I have a measured move up that ends at VWAP, so the overshoot may have to test VWAP from above before continuing on up in a second leg. VWAP at ES 2791

Ug threatening to go back into that hour long range. Well ups the odds of a really ugly sell off as without news I am thinking the bulls are burgers for today.

Trades with cats wrote:Ug threatening to go back into that hour long range. Well ups the odds of a really ugly sell off as without news I am thinking the bulls are burgers for today.

twc yes. better odds we may slide good next day or 3.

Poked out of the range by 1 tick both directions now. Very decisive market action, NOT!

Trades with cats wrote:Poked out of the range by 1 tick both directions now. Very decisive market action, NOT!

patience shall be rewarded...

My measured move for this leg puts us real close to the overnight low, which would be an obvious place to bounce.

order book unbalanced. I am showing 1,300 contracts to buy at 2780.

Now sitting on 1,300 sells at ES 2781.50. Strange day, must mean the big boys are back playing some games.

Reasonably large bulge in the order book up at ES 2781 range, if it bounces that high.

Argh! We are back in that stupid range box again. Clearly someone with deep pockets likes the overnight low as a double bottom. Send a signal to all those foreign time zone traders tonight.

HAPPY HOUR

Need a higher low then consolidate until the Ramp Express boosts things back to the opening print. Not a breakdown and a waterfall into that 2750 zone.