05/31/2019 Market Recap
Posted: Fri May 31, 2019 4:34 pm
Officially, testing MA200, wait and see. Personally I think a panic bottom is now needed, so no volume surge, no bottom.
Range day, technically not wrong for calling the low was in, but trading wise, I was too optimistic because I thought chasing high was OK, I totally ignored the general rule of trading a reversal is to skip the first rebound then watch how the revisit of the previous low goes before consider buying. Sometimes there's no revisit so betting on the revisit is not guaranteed and this is why sometimes I don't wait for the revisit, I mean I did have reason for "though chasing high was OK".
NOTE:
Explained how I'd judge downtrend day or range day or uptrend day here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3476&p=269118#p269118).
Very strong breakout of the EMA20 so I thought the low was in for today (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3476&p=269127#p269127). As explained in the summary, the correct way to trade here was to wait for the revisit which I kind mentioned.
So here's the revisit (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3476&p=269141#p269141).
Nothing wrong to bet higher low here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3476&p=269145#p269145) because it did look like a good setup by now. It later failed, no complain as trading reversal setup always has low if not very low successful rate, it relies on good reward risk ratio to make money in the long run.
It's just a reminder, every time testing the previous low there're some chances of reversal (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3476&p=269151#p269151).
Now new low was more likely (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3476&p=269154#p269154), which turned out indeed later. It's just very near the close, so no trading value.
No huge covering before the close so bears were confident that no good news would happen in the weekend therefore more likely down the next Monday.
The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.
- My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.
- Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.
- Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.