Cobra's Market View

Well at least the trend line is sort of holding if you want to call that last move up an overshoot.

Thought we may have had a double bottom, but that last drop went right thru....

Well here we are at yesterday's POC. Now what?

Down to lower line of channel....

te_fern wrote:

daytradingES wrote:well too slow (again) this morning
hard to get up on time
both H&L estimates have been attained - and only 9:15am !

High Est 2912.25
Actual High 2911.50
Dif= 0.75
Low Est 2898.00
Actual Low 2897.00
Dif= 1.00

dtES, are these good for the whole day? Tight range...

Yes you are right.. very tight.
I had a problem finding a low end match
The HE was fine = stp est 2 but my choices for LE were sparse and so I gave up and settled on low stop-level1.

The thing is, I was sleepy - being up too late.
At first I thought up day but then noticed the dir and flipped to -1.

So HAD I noticed this then the LE isn't imp - the important thing would have been to get the sell in
2911.50 @ 08:36

well now clearly too narrow... but too late

daytradingES wrote:

te_fern wrote:

daytradingES wrote:well too slow (again) this morning
hard to get up on time
both H&L estimates have been attained - and only 9:15am !

High Est 2912.25
Actual High 2911.50
Dif= 0.75
Low Est 2898.00
Actual Low 2897.00
Dif= 1.00

dtES, are these good for the whole day? Tight range...

Yes you are right.. very tight.
I had a problem finding a low end match
The HE was fine = stp est 2 but my choices for LE were sparse and so I gave up and settled on low stop-level1.

The thing is, I was sleepy - being up too late.
At first I thought up day but then noticed the dir and flipped to -1.

So HAD I noticed this then the LE isn't imp - the important thing would have been to get the sell in
2911.50 @ 08:36

well now clearly too narrow... but too late

Thanks! Yes, that would have been a nice sell point....

OK I've figured out the error.
I take numbers from IB and somehow there was an error in one of the numbers I gathered before the open.
In any case here is the default (called auto est) which is generated by the model --
Auto est
2911.25
2884.75
26.50

Often I fiddle with it but here it is....

High Est 2911.25
Actual High 2911.50
Dif= -0.25
Low Est 2884.75
Actual Low 2891.00
Dif= -6.25

(I HAVE to get more sleep! LOL)

From Coolbiz1:
SPX has likely peaked here at 2911 for a Minor 1(Blue) as projected on June 6th.
Or if it extends, from higher levels.
If so, expect a pullback to 2820-2800 area for Minor 2 in coming weeks.
Out of all trading longs.

Breaks yesterday's double bottom (lower blue line), could end of being much lower close....

Saved so far....

Played the Semi short for a small profit, but it's looking poised for something bigger.....

Yep, already left money on the table....

it's technically a downtrend day so far although as per my definition, until now, it finally has chances being a downtrend day but since it's too late now as usually downtrend day has later day reversal up, so I'll pass.

Well I dragged a line down to the low (from the machine drawn least squares trend fit) and we are there, as well as of course the bearish engulfing, which Cobra and others say doesn't mean much. Still the bottom line is all the Fed jawboning and White House tweeting isn't going to get blood out of a turnip. I can see why Coolbiz is looking for down now. Doesn't mean he is right, but at this point it is hard to argue against.

Read a discussion recently on another forum about prices and data feed. Brokers are most concerned with current price, so if there is an interruption or something their system is designed to skip intervening transactions and go to the most current. Many wait for the exchanges to announce the official closing price for the day.

Gap up on ES, NQ, YM and MES. Gap filled and then some.

DOW stocks taking a hit today.

My trend lines made Andrews pitchfork twice. Also I am sure I am abusing the measured move concept, be that as it may makes it clear to me the drops are getting weaker so I am thinking a low may be close.