Cobra's Market View

You know that referendum is not really dead. They may put it back next week.
Also Italy will be the next star of clown show
BTW, don't mess with Italians...

Al_Dente wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:i'm sitting 75% short with a loss on today's squeeze higher, but i'm not panicky at all. in fact, i wrote 3 hours ago that we would probably have to face testing 126.4 (with an overshoot - for the usual broker stop hunting machine), before the bears had a chance. i'm always anxious being short the market, but i see this as a very healthy correction to Mon and Tuesday's routs. now it's time for the bears to see what they can do, and barring rumors and intervention, we should see, at the minimum, a visit to 124. i think the market is more vulnerable to bearish news at this point, then it is to bullish news. with the referendum vote headlines out of the way, now it's all about how the EFSF is not going to work.

Yr new nickname is officially “Jarbo of the big bowls.”
Al just has little ones

well, guess that's it for today, we stopped right at a resistance. tonight and tomorrow's news better be good, so that the market can gap up above it. I have no idea what the next will be, I don't trust this rebound. yeah, I know, the trend is up, please don't remind me for that, thanks. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

Me XMan wrote:You know that referendum is not really dead. They may put it back next week.
Also Italy will be the next star of clown show

Al_Dente wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:i'm sitting 75% short with a loss on today's squeeze higher, but i'm not panicky at all. in fact, i wrote 3 hours ago that we would probably have to face testing 126.4 (with an overshoot - for the usual broker stop hunting machine), before the bears had a chance. i'm always anxious being short the market, but i see this as a very healthy correction to Mon and Tuesday's routs. now it's time for the bears to see what they can do, and barring rumors and intervention, we should see, at the minimum, a visit to 124. i think the market is more vulnerable to bearish news at this point, then it is to bullish news. with the referendum vote headlines out of the way, now it's all about how the EFSF is not going to work.

Yr new nickname is officially “Jarbo of the big bowls.”
Al just has little ones

referendum is now tied to Pap's being PM. hmmmm...tough choice there.

fact is spy kept making new highs. but no new highs in euro. no new lows in bonds. something ain't right...and it's usually spy.

You've got to be KIDDING!!!

Headlines soon to follow: Greek PM Papandreou is back up in front of Parliament. Watch live here (in Greek).

Is this the head of right shoulder??

Cobra wrote:well, guess that's it for today, we stopped right at a resistance. tonight and tomorrow's news better be good, so that the market can gap up above it. I have no idea what the next will be, I don't trust this rebound. yeah, I know, the trend is up, please don't remind me for that, thanks. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

Me XMan wrote:Is this the head of right shoulder??

Cobra wrote:well, guess that's it for today, we stopped right at a resistance. tonight and tomorrow's news better be good, so that the market can gap up above it. I have no idea what the next will be, I don't trust this rebound. yeah, I know, the trend is up, please don't remind me for that, thanks. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

too early to tell.

Al_Dente wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:i'm sitting 75% short with a loss on today's squeeze higher, but i'm not panicky at all. in fact, i wrote 3 hours ago that we would probably have to face testing 126.4 (with an overshoot - for the usual broker stop hunting machine), before the bears had a chance. i'm always anxious being short the market, but i see this as a very healthy correction to Mon and Tuesday's routs. now it's time for the bears to see what they can do, and barring rumors and intervention, we should see, at the minimum, a visit to 124. i think the market is more vulnerable to bearish news at this point, then it is to bullish news. with the referendum vote headlines out of the way, now it's all about how the EFSF is not going to work.

Yr new nickname is officially “Jarbo of the big bowls.”
Al just has little ones

Mr. Dente. I respect your work. Do you have an opinion about going short tza and tna (equal dollars)continuously. Is there USA tax implications other than going long short term on stocks. Thank you.

tdo722 wrote:

pady wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Wow you guys are so chatty, Who said Neg D doesn't work? watch this.

It works sometimes in daily and weekly timeframes. I dont trust anything below that. Here is one that failed in a weekly timeframe itself.

Now why would you want to loook for a positive d when the trend is down? I would be looking for negative d in a downtrend. play it safe.

So that means, the current trend is up. It's much safe to look for positive D to get back in for the ride to spx 1292 and above which happened this morning.

I didn't say Negative D doesn't work. I just said Positive D is more reliable. So I agree with tdo722.

I was just responding to a comment that though they got out at the top hours ago. Nope.

p

By looking at Dow Jones chart, it looks a lot of selling in last 15 min., volume spiked as well.
1 min chart, second last red bar, 4.6 mil. volume.

xfradnex wrote:

Dutchy wrote:Hi Cobra, this morning you called the opening stretched and voiced the expectation of a pullback which happened as predicted.
What is your definition of stretched? Is it the absolute size of the gap or in relation to a previous pattern?

Thank you,
Dutchy

Look at MAs on his chart. if there a very large seperation between MAs and actual the lines, they will try to meet each other in the middle somewhere. From there, who knows. Most of the time this will happen on the open(when there has been a gap up or down) or when there has been big market news. In this mornings open, there was a gap; a good opertunity for a move for 15 minutes or more. Need to figure out what the S&P implied open is and translate that to a SPY, SSO, etc. be ready to pull trigger on very open.(GLTA). I need to do this myself(find a good place that gives a good implied opening value on the Web).

Thanks for explaining xfradnex. But wouldn't that imply that every opening is stretched by this criterium? The price action is always ahead of the MAs after all. Or is there a quantitative criterium for the separation?

jarbo456 wrote:

Me XMan wrote:You know that referendum is not really dead. They may put it back next week.
Also Italy will be the next star of clown show

Al_Dente wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:i'm sitting 75% short with a loss on today's squeeze higher, but i'm not panicky at all. in fact, i wrote 3 hours ago that we would probably have to face testing 126.4 (with an overshoot - for the usual broker stop hunting machine), before the bears had a chance. i'm always anxious being short the market, but i see this as a very healthy correction to Mon and Tuesday's routs. now it's time for the bears to see what they can do, and barring rumors and intervention, we should see, at the minimum, a visit to 124. i think the market is more vulnerable to bearish news at this point, then it is to bullish news. with the referendum vote headlines out of the way, now it's all about how the EFSF is not going to work.

Yr new nickname is officially “Jarbo of the big bowls.”
Al just has little ones

referendum is now tied to Pap's being PM. hmmmm...tough choice there.

fact is spy kept making new highs. but no new highs in euro. no new lows in bonds. something ain't right...and it's usually spy.

Last night all the Asian markets opened 2% lower then we end up with a strong day in the US on nothing.

I am with you on spy.

The newsflow I am seeing is all bad from Europe.

Dutchy wrote:

xfradnex wrote:

Dutchy wrote:Hi Cobra, this morning you called the opening stretched and voiced the expectation of a pullback which happened as predicted.
What is your definition of stretched? Is it the absolute size of the gap or in relation to a previous pattern?

Thank you,
Dutchy

Look at MAs on his chart. if there a very large seperation between MAs and actual the lines, they will try to meet each other in the middle somewhere. From there, who knows. Most of the time this will happen on the open(when there has been a gap up or down) or when there has been big market news. In this mornings open, there was a gap; a good opertunity for a move for 15 minutes or more. Need to figure out what the S&P implied open is and translate that to a SPY, SSO, etc. be ready to pull trigger on very open.(GLTA). I need to do this myself(find a good place that gives a good implied opening value on the Web).

Thanks for explaining xfradnex. But wouldn't that imply that every opening is stretched by this criterium? The price action is always ahead of the MAs after all. Or is there a quantitative criterium for the separation?

Not reading the chart carefully. need watch closely again.

Last chart for the road, I think the diamond top will play out, well, bet on it any how. Thanks Cobra and all, GLTA

Dutchy wrote:

xfradnex wrote:

Dutchy wrote:Hi Cobra, this morning you called the opening stretched and voiced the expectation of a pullback which happened as predicted.
What is your definition of stretched? Is it the absolute size of the gap or in relation to a previous pattern?

Thank you,
Dutchy

Look at MAs on his chart. if there a very large seperation between MAs and actual the lines, they will try to meet each other in the middle somewhere. From there, who knows. Most of the time this will happen on the open(when there has been a gap up or down) or when there has been big market news. In this mornings open, there was a gap; a good opertunity for a move for 15 minutes or more. Need to figure out what the S&P implied open is and translate that to a SPY, SSO, etc. be ready to pull trigger on very open.(GLTA). I need to do this myself(find a good place that gives a good implied opening value on the Web).

Thanks for explaining xfradnex. But wouldn't that imply that every opening is stretched by this criterium? The price action is always ahead of the MAs after all. Or is there a quantitative criterium for the separation?

Note that MA setting on this 1 minute chart. When the actual price from the Red line is double the distance between the Red and Blue, this would be a good opertunity to short. The more stretched the lines are apart the better the final outcome. Need to compare all the upward humps. I marked the best one, the opening. These are rules of thumb. Need to develop the eye to see these geometries. note the distances between the lines for most of the previous day as a measure for future price/MA movements and opertunities. .

Today's DJIA chart.
Maybe some sell off tommorow?

Some price levels to watch on AAPL, BIDU, and EDU.

http://stk.ly/w0ia7w

I'm quite new to trading (just over a year) with a broker. Up until February all was great. I wanted to sell because my gut said I made too much money and pigs get slaughtered. My broker said, trust me, the sky is the limit (he forgot to mention the sky is the limit on your losses). I'm starting my own trading now and I'm torn between day trading and swing trading.

I want to swing trade patterns. Zeal has great articles using their relativity model. For example, they have been saying to get into oil now as it was below their bottom relativity band (95% of the ratio of the close to EMA200). So, I've been holding ERX for the "long term" swing trade (2 to 4 times your money in 8 months, why not). But then last week hit. I knew a correction was coming, I accumulated more half way down as oppose to accumulating more at the bottom or switching to ERY.

I would also like to day trade/short term swing trade. I believe most of you are more day traders.

My question to the team, looking at the attached chart, the trend is up (S&P, the bottom half shows Zeal's relativity). But there are bumps along the way (last week). How would someone like me keep on top of market changes so that I can change from ERX to ERY. Or, like today for day trading, I've been buying and selling calls on TNA and TZA. Are 1 hour charts better for watching for longer term trends (a market pullback seems to happen very quickly)?

Even knowing when to buy and hold TVIX (I started doing that this summer but was talked out of holding it for extended periods of time, my return, in my mind, would have been a LOT compared to my few short term trades). Maybe I just need to start drinking at Trader Vix's more often...

Any guidance or direction would be greatly appreciated.

Your daily commentary is incredible. For the month or so I have been following you, WOW! Cobra and the rest of the gang, incredible! Music wise, I may start adding some country...

GLTA

h2oskier wrote:I'm quite new to trading (just over a year) with a broker. Up until February all was great. I wanted to sell because my gut said I made too much money and pigs get slaughtered. My broker said, trust me, the sky is the limit (he forgot to mention the sky is the limit on your losses). I'm starting my own trading now and I'm torn between day trading and swing trading.

I want to swing trade patterns. Zeal has great articles using their relativity model. For example, they have been saying to get into oil now as it was below their bottom relativity band (95% of the ratio of the close to EMA200). So, I've been holding ERX for the "long term" swing trade (2 to 4 times your money in 8 months, why not). But then last week hit. I knew a correction was coming, I accumulated more half way down as oppose to accumulating more at the bottom or switching to ERY.

I would also like to day trade/short term swing trade. I believe most of you are more day traders.

My question to the team, looking at the attached chart, the trend is up (S&P, the bottom half shows Zeal's relativity). But there are bumps along the way (last week). How would someone like me keep on top of market changes so that I can change from ERX to ERY. Or, like today for day trading, I've been buying and selling calls on TNA and TZA. Are 1 hour charts better for watching for longer term trends (a market pullback seems to happen very quickly)?

Even knowing when to buy and hold TVIX (I started doing that this summer but was talked out of holding it for extended periods of time, my return, in my mind, would have been a LOT compared to my few short term trades). Maybe I just need to start drinking at Trader Vix's more often...

Any guidance or direction would be greatly appreciated.

Your daily commentary is incredible. For the month or so I have been following you, WOW! Cobra and the rest of the gang, incredible! Music wise, I may start adding some country...

GLTA

Screen Shot 2011-11-03 at 4.38.09 PM.png

As a newbie to a newbie, swing trading is what I would recommend but sometimes I do get greedy and do a quick scalp here and there but trust me, I lost more money this way than I make so I am primarily a swing trader only and I recommend that you do the same.

3 very important time frame that I would recommend for swing is 15m, 30m, 60m. 3 very important indicators that I would recommend for swing is volume, rsi, and macd. what we want is rsi and macd confirms the bullish divergence in a bullish trend, and a bearish divergence in a bearish trend. as of right now, we are in bullish trend so only look for bullish divergence. after that, use volume to confirm it as a final step. gl

last but not least, it is always best to monitor e-mini s&p 500 since it has no crazy gaps that can mess up your T/A.

tdo722 wrote:

h2oskier wrote:I'm quite new to trading (just over a year) with a broker. Up until February all was great. I wanted to sell because my gut said I made too much money and pigs get slaughtered. My broker said, trust me, the sky is the limit (he forgot to mention the sky is the limit on your losses). I'm starting my own trading now and I'm torn between day trading and swing trading.

I want to swing trade patterns. Zeal has great articles using their relativity model. For example, they have been saying to get into oil now as it was below their bottom relativity band (95% of the ratio of the close to EMA200). So, I've been holding ERX for the "long term" swing trade (2 to 4 times your money in 8 months, why not). But then last week hit. I knew a correction was coming, I accumulated more half way down as oppose to accumulating more at the bottom or switching to ERY.

I would also like to day trade/short term swing trade. I believe most of you are more day traders.

My question to the team, looking at the attached chart, the trend is up (S&P, the bottom half shows Zeal's relativity). But there are bumps along the way (last week). How would someone like me keep on top of market changes so that I can change from ERX to ERY. Or, like today for day trading, I've been buying and selling calls on TNA and TZA. Are 1 hour charts better for watching for longer term trends (a market pullback seems to happen very quickly)?

Even knowing when to buy and hold TVIX (I started doing that this summer but was talked out of holding it for extended periods of time, my return, in my mind, would have been a LOT compared to my few short term trades). Maybe I just need to start drinking at Trader Vix's more often...

Any guidance or direction would be greatly appreciated.

Your daily commentary is incredible. For the month or so I have been following you, WOW! Cobra and the rest of the gang, incredible! Music wise, I may start adding some country...

GLTA

Screen Shot 2011-11-03 at 4.38.09 PM.png

As a newbie to a newbie, swing trading is what I would recommend but sometimes I do get greedy and do a quick scalp here and there but trust me, I lost more money this way than I make so I am primarily a swing trader only and I recommend that you do the same.

3 very important time frame that I would recommend for swing is 15m, 30m, 60m. 3 very important indicators that I would recommend for swing is volume, rsi, and macd. what we want is rsi and macd confirms the bullish divergence in a bullish trend, and a bearish divergence in a bearish trend. as of right now, we are in bullish trend so only look for bullish divergence. after that, use volume to confirm it as a final step. gl

last but not least, it is always best to monitor e-mini s&p 500 since it has no crazy gaps that can mess up your T/A.

Thanks, I appreciate the advice. What do you use for charting? I was quite happy with TC2000 but then realized its limited in a way that you can't view futures (ES), after hours trading, option pricing, metals or comparisons between 2 values (HUI/GLD or GLD/SLV). I do however like its "live" view and the iPhone.