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07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:23 am
by Cobra
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probably the rebound would be sold.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:26 am
by Cobra

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 9:55 am
by Heck
More than Three Times Undervalued Index PUTS as Calls = DOWN MORE

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:03 am
by Cobra

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:04 am
by Cobra
it's morning hourly hollow red.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:22 am
by Heck
All Three Option Sentiment Indicators = DOWN DOWN DOWN

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:22 am
by Mr. BachNut
Mr. BachNut reporting in.

The NYMO cycle has turned down.
Yesterday's NYMO close was negative and was a lower low than the June 25 low.
A negative close today would further confirm the turn.
This gives us a benchmark price of SPX 2958.06, which was the high at the top of the up cycle.
The model gives good odds for price to go below the benchmark by the time the downcycle completes.

Pricewise, we knocked off a down gap target earlier this week and at the open today.
That leaves only a dozen!!! gaps below.
We have opened up a gap above at yesterday's close, but it is closing as I write.

I have marked a bit of a trend channel that formed after the initial surge from the June low.
We are trading about the bottom of the channel now.
So, it is fair to be prepared for a bounce and perhaps a test of recent highs.
Things got oversold yesterday, and OPEX is tomorrow. So, a lot can happen.

My SPX runner finally closed out yesterday.
I have opened up small shorts in SPX and R2K with room to build on a high retest or follow-through.
VIX is on the low side. So, the positions are on probation until a real trend clarifies.
I also have short time frame long setups percolating, so I may also end up long and short over the next few days.
Bottom line is we have the makings of a turn, but it needs more development. It could easily turn into a consolidation/continuation sort of thing.
We shall see.

NYMO 071819.jpg

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:35 am
by Al_Dente
GOLD MINERS:
Interesting chart from Jesse Felder on how BANG beats FANG !!
https://thefelderreport.com/2019/07/17/ ... report.com

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:37 am
by Trades with cats
Rut Row Breakout trying to break down.Looks like back into range defined by overnight high.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:50 am
by Al_Dente
NFLX is only 1.87% of the QQQ-100 (its #11 heaviest weighted stock)
718nflx.png.png

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:50 am
by Cobra
it's bear's last chance here. let's see whether bears are willing to stand.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:57 am
by Trades with cats
ES 09-19 (2000 Tick) 2019_07_18 (8_52_26 AM).png

Lower brown trend line is off the overnight low. It has been touched several times so far so Bears have to break it.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 10:59 am
by Trades with cats
ES 09-19 (15 Minute) 2019_07_18 (8_56_29 AM).png

Bigger picture market is doing what it does, filling out the profile.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:05 am
by Trades with cats
By the way my cheep (ok free) 10 tick either side DOM showing options pinning, or at least I will call it that. Every time we get close to a X0 or X5 price. As an example currently bids are triple the other prices at 2985.00 Saw a similar thing with offers as we approached 2990.00. Just saying those levels could be stickier than normal today.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:09 am
by Trades with cats
Market is really startting to look stalled out at overnight high. Waiting for a trade tweet or Fed speaker to blast us past this level.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:16 am
by BullBear52x
very close to the cliff, Do or die today for bulls.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:16 am
by Al_Dente
AD:
this morning bears were 3.2x bulls
they gave it all back
bears are 1.2x bulls at the moment
this is the "chop" zone (bulls don't have enough juice yet at 0.8x bears)

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:19 am
by BullBear52x
/ES support.

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:24 am
by Trades with cats
ES 09-19 (2000 Tick) 2019_07_18 (9_19_56 AM).png

That was a really solid looking trend line. Looks like the bears have smashed it. So Captain Obvious is wondering, second day down trend or into a range. :D

Re: 07/18/2019 Live Update

PostPosted: Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:27 am
by Al_Dente
Today we get our first red Elder bar since the June low
on the SPX and the QQQ
Let's see if they can close red
Daily
718elder.png.png