07/27/2019 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 1 week, 77% chances higher high ahead the next week so likely not topped yet.

[Al_Dente]

[Erin Swenlin on stockcharts noted the divergences seen here]
“Notice how price continues to make new all-time price highs… while fewer stocks are holding support at their 20/50-EMAs….It's been great at the all-time highs, but these indexes need to see full participation if we are to expect this rally to continue on.”

Pasta here: Nothing is perfect, including the Participation Indicators. Note the mid March divergences preceded a very slight pullback, while the May divergences gave us a deeper decline.
Going back further, last year’s December high didn’t give us any warning in terms of divergences, but participation quickly dropped below 50%.

When short/medium term participation drops below 50% (meaning that less than 50% of stocks are participating in the move), get out and stay out until it strengthens.
[the purple vertical lines mark various highs]
Daily

Please VOTE for Cobra today and tomorrow:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Al_Dente]

WEEK AT A GLANCE

[Al_Dente]

EARNINGS SEASON is nearly over for the big guys, except:
Tuesday July 30 before the open: DHI, MA, MRK, PFE, PG, R
Tuesday July 30 after the close: AAPL, AMGN, BIDU
Wednesday July 31 before the open: not much
Wednesday July 31 after the close: MCK, QCOM, S, WDC

Also, WEDNESDAY JULY 31 IS END-OF-MONTH AND FOMC

Thursday Aug 1 before the open: AGN, GM, VZ
Thursday Aug 1 after the close: FSLR
Friday Aug 2 before the open: CVX, XOM, HMC

[BullBear52x]

From It is what it is department "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" Kynes. that sum it up as what we have today. a short term new ATH, the bulls are now regain all of the buy dip coupons in all time frames. keep it simple, BUY/SELL until it failed, so far bulls have not failed. overnight holdings is troublesome with negative divergence but that is not a good reason to short selling hard at this junction. Peace!

[Trades with cats]

I think weekend is the right place to post Coolbiz wave counts. I also follow Pretzel Charts free wave counts. Both are good at actually using Elliot Wave for longer term (not day trading). Both see the market at an inflection zone as does most every form of analysis.
This is cool biz this weekend.
SSPX Under T/A Broadening Topping Formation has ended or will end soon below 3033. Under EWC, EDT for Minor 5 completes the pattern. 55% Probability. For higher extensions has a perfect , [ii], (i), (ii) of (iii) of [iii] of Minor 3 here needs to closed above 3303? A 45% prob.

Broadening TOP Formation has ended or will end after a bit higher below 3033.
If it closes above then a Break-Out is very bullish ST (45% probability).

[Trades with cats]

I need a new phone. Family says we love ourApple phones. Cheepest model is $750. None of them paid that much. Going to be interesting to see how many $1,000 phones, let alone the cheep ones they are selling.

I am assuming the experts are correct and Cook's strategy is to use cash to keep prices of the stock up for a couple of years while the services business grows to the point that falling phone sales is no longer a problem.

I think the issue is that in computers apple is a very expensive niche player with a small part of the world market. They certainly cater to a limited crowd in universities, programming and arts. Maybe with their big push for vertical integration they can expand margins and regain market share in phones, or they could be looking for throw away marketing to defend their product as unique. As in we have our own exclusive chips. But you have to throw something to the pigeons once in a while if they are going to keep buying your snake oil. I see no evidence the phones aren't following the PCs as a status symbol trinket for the few that want that sort of thing and really a non-player otherwise. My bottom line as a hardware company they have priced themselves out of the mass market.

Somehow their cachet is going to allow them to out compete Disney and others in entertainment services and their high margin world wide growth story will resume. Yea right.