From Briefing.com:
"The 2s10s spread inversion widened today to four basis points, largely due to a seven-basis-point drop in the 10-yr yield (1.48%). The 3mo-10yr spread, which researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve found to be the most reliable of the different term spreads as a recession indicator, is inverted by 51 basis points. That spread has been inverted since May." .
Daniel wrote:From Briefing.com:
"The 2s10s spread inversion widened today to four basis points, largely due to a seven-basis-point drop in the 10-yr yield (1.48%). The 3mo-10yr spread, which researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve found to be the most reliable of the different term spreads as a recession indicator, is inverted by 51 basis points. That spread has been inverted since May." .
Today the 3s30s inverted. That generally does not happen, Fed is behind the curve.
OMG
Earlier today
COSTCO CHINA officially opened to throngs of folks.
A local media outlet run by the Shanghai government advised shoppers to ... "consume in a rational manner."
Signs outside the store, located in the Minhang District of Shanghai, warned customers that they might have to wait three hours to park, and another two hours to pay for their goods.
Demand was so intense on opening day that Costco was forced to close early as crowds of thousands of people showed up to shop. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... to+zero%29
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
ccash04 wrote:Today the 3s30s inverted. That generally does not happen, Fed is behind the curve.
Excellent observation. Question is, tho, is there still a "curve"? Everything is so flat, there is very little absolute room for differential. Everything is under 2%, so small moves can cause inversion, and then reversal thereof, fairly easily.
Bigger question on yield curve raised by those who are paid to write is can you make any valid comparison to the past. Generally no, only to Japan because it is different this time. No 500 basis point starting differential between short and long term, no overheated economy with the Fed jamming short term rates above long. So it is apples to oranges. In other words we are in uncharted territory. No wonder the markets have the jitters.
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Chart for the road: bulls are underdogs and hanging for their dear life I like to bet on the underdogs, will see if the underdogs will fight back tomorrow. Sideways consolidation phase, don't think too hard. Peace!
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
USO is still holding a >2% gain; perhaps as a result IYT is down -1%. (XLI is only down 1/2 of 1%.) Also hit hard today is KRE, faring much worse than XLF.
ccash04 wrote:Today the 3s30s inverted. That generally does not happen, Fed is behind the curve.
Excellent observation. Question is, tho, is there still a "curve"? Everything is so flat, there is very little absolute room for differential. Everything is under 2%, so small moves can cause inversion, and then reversal thereof, fairly easily.
Yes, but this adds duration risk, where debt gets issued over longer periods. Then if rates rise longer end does faster since more exposure then everyone realizes no one is wearing pants. That's all the theory, maybe interest rates never rise again.
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Well pretty easy to see the POC for the consolidated since July 1 is pretty much where we were when Trump tanked the market. Most bulls know that is the target, just waiting for the catalyst to trigger the move. Need some serious help from Tim Cook and his group of buyback CEO's.
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