Weekend Watering

[cougar]

I’ve been trying for a while to get a reasonable DXY Square, which would punctuate the moves of the currency.
After several trials of using trend and acceleration analyses, an unorthodox “best fit” emerged. It
accepts an ascending Gann Fan and a descending Fibonacci Harmonic Fan, both of them originating on the time zero vertical of the Gann Square… It happened that that day was on the Winter Solstice of 2010.
==========
I am definitely not a believer in astrology…but Gann was one.

[cougar]

Here is may daily QQQ. It shows:
- a Gann Fan
- the rounded top defining curve
- a recent “Gann 4 Event” resolved on the upside.

[Al_Dente]

Another puzzle piece. Re: Mr. Bach’s observation that a “broad bull” is questionable without bank participation.
Note here that $RUT is lagging on daily fib retracement. Other indices are at or above 61.8% fib retrace, while RUT is at 50%.
Okay, maybe RUT will play catch-up tomorrow/soon, and maybe I should have drawn the top of the fib lines from the may high instead of the july high, and maybe monkeys might fly out of my chart too.
The issue remains: how long can a “rally” sustain if/when it leaves banks and small caps behind?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =248678638
[Not on this chart is banks $BKX retracing a paltry 39% ish fib, but regionals KRE retraced > 62%.
PS: Now I see BB52 just showed us the EEM weakness; and I see it (also lagging) under 50% ish daily fib retrace.
So, ladies and gents, welcome to the rally ex-banks, with rut and emerging markets lagging.
Raise your hands and tell us when was the last time you’ve seen a “rally” quite like that.
Now we know what to obsess about this week: catch-up strength or breakdowns in those three lazy musketeers.

[Mr. BachNut]

I made some money in crude oil last week. I bought a bullish chart that was moving contrary to most other commodities. I have been looking around for some good fundamental explanation for the strength but haven't found anything really compelling except maybe the attached chart. A while ago WTI price diverged from Brent. They now appear to be converging with WTI rising fast. I am out of my position for the moment, but if this convergence is to complete there is still some spread to be arbitraged.

[cougar]

AS I was telling you guys on Friday, I have some concerns with my positions for this OpEx…Here is an example:

I am short both IWM calls and puts, as shown on this chart. Why did I set such a narrow and “risky” range for them? Probably because I am greedy and I sold (to open) expensive stuff, monitoring carefully the VIX and the “Greek option numbers" at the time of the sale…But there is one more thing: you see that small symmetric (probably continuation) yellow triangle, with an apex on 11/24, which is a week after OpEx? Well, there is a reasonable hope that the move out of this triangle will not happen so soon. And…THIS IS MY GAMBLE!
If it moves, I’ll have to act promptly!
-------------
I have similar open trades in other indices.
Obviously, this is not a recommendation to enter such positions, even if you have a good heart…It would be probably too late, since the premiums are now dropping fast…

[Mr. BachNut]

So, I looked at Cobra's survey and see that folk's here weigh in fairly bearish.
I checked in on sentiment indexes generally, and they are bullish (often noted as bearish but it takes bulls to make a bull market). OK, so Cobra posters may be contrarian. Fine.
Then, I scanned a variety of weekend expert market calls, and I see a fairly balanced mix of bullish and bearish.
Are others seeing the same sort of thing? Is this some kind of bizarro market equilibrium?

[BullBear52x]

Here is may daily QQQ. It shows:
- a Gann Fan
- the rounded top defining curve
- a recent “Gann 4 Event” resolved on the upside.

Nice chart Cougar, short term and gap up on last Friday really change the over all mood of the market, are they hanging on for dear life or simply a bear trap? I will stick on channeling price action until the dust settled. any time we trades in and out of 5dma I would not expect much on either side but to prepare and in hope I will not miss a break out on either side. sideways consolidation only good for day trading. I'd like to see lower trade than last Thursday's low to say bears mean business, if not, bull will walk all over the bears a little longer. Triangle is coin toss so I am not that exciting to even mention it. a trend change is in the making no doubt.

[cougar]

So, I looked at Cobra's survey and see that folk's here weigh in fairly bearish.
I checked in on sentiment indexes generally, and they are bullish (often noted as bearish but it takes bulls to make a bull market). OK, so Cobra posters may be contrarian. Fine.
Then, I scanned a variety of weekend expert market calls, and I see a fairly balanced mix of bullish and bearish.
Are others seeing the same sort of thing? Is this some kind of bizarro market equilibrium?

Maybe…a good time to sell front month out of the money options to both bears and bulls? I hope so!

[BullBear52x]

So, I looked at Cobra's survey and see that folk's here weigh in fairly bearish.
I checked in on sentiment indexes generally, and they are bullish (often noted as bearish but it takes bulls to make a bull market). OK, so Cobra posters may be contrarian. Fine.
Then, I scanned a variety of weekend expert market calls, and I see a fairly balanced mix of bullish and bearish.
Are others seeing the same sort of thing? Is this some kind of bizarro market equilibrium?

Here is how I really see things, price pays. a break out on either side of the red channel I will adjust to a new set up.

[cougar]

Thanx BullBear…Yes, a new trend is coming.
Q: how soon?
Here is a zoom on the DXY Square, where one can consider a support zone between MM 2/8 (~77) and the “square defining” MAW (~76). If it holds, the next move for the US$ should be UP…If not, back to the bottom of the octave…

[BullBear52x]

Thanx BullBear…Yes, a new trend is coming.
Q: how soon?
Here is a zoom on the DXY Square, where one can consider a support zone between MM 2/8 (~77) and the “square defining” MAW (~76). If it holds, the next move for the US$ should be UP…If not, back to the bottom of the octave…

How could you chart a printing machine

[BullBear52x]

I just want to say thanks to everyone here again, with all the greatest mind here the market still find ways to out smart us. GLTA

[seekingknowledge]

Al Dente: Nice! I enjoy your work and comments!

That's a big ditto!

[99er]

Updates

AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/audjpy.html
EURJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurjpy.html

GLTA.

[Al_Dente]

Al Dente: Nice! I enjoy your work and comments!

That's a big ditto!

Dear cougar, thanks… so, you’re hoping for a flat-ish or small range week…
I studied Gann years ago, but I skimmed the hard parts (true story).
My spread and naked days are long gone… I like u a lot when you just tell us what/when to buy/sell.
You may have noticed I keep it pretty simple. Here’s how I feel about math these days:
http://screencast.com/t/r0dUiW5fYVD

Dear seekingknowledge, thanks… you follow $RUT/IWM too, what do u think of its “weakness”?
Here is a song for you http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JECTUQVrvzE

[waverider]

Not at all offended Al, I'm just saying it's hilarious how the general person in the OWS crowd doesn't have a concrete argument. Did you take the pic of that canal? I'd like to go to Ireland someday, I hear they have the real pints of Guinness, opposed to the Guinness here in the states.

For any rally fans, here's my favorite video of the best driver of all time, RIP Mr. McRae: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTSijvmYC6o

[rhight]

PAGING Baron von Channeling52x and Rhight:
I could argue that SPY 60min shows a wonky symmetrical triangle, rather than a pennant or a “red light district”. According to Bulkowski, the symmetrical is a bullish coin toss; and volume trends downward 86% of the time with this “pattern.”
SPY may have more room to run, at least to 127.50-ish to take out all the covering, or a breakout above 128 to scare the bejezzus out of the bears, before turning down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =248626248

Pennants and symmetrical triangles are very similar in appearance, and it seems the primary difference is in time frame, pennants being the shorter of the two. The current triangle is 11 days long, and that would be a pennant in some people's book. I usually use the symmetrical triangle terminology because it is more descriptive to me. From what I read it is not unusual for volume to decline across this formation. It can break either way, and it can have a false breakout in either direction. So big help there, right? There is a lot of confusion right now, and so a triangle fits the mood. This is what I see. NYUPV is trending down, and yet NYDNV not trending up (I use the 9 day ema, but that is only because I've been using that setting for a couple years and have got used to it's "look"). This tells me that buying interest is waning, but selling interest has not really picked up yet. The three recent 9:1 DNV:UPV days tells me there is some (and sudden) selling interest, but like when you are trying to bring in a big fish, you just don't yank it in all at once, or the line might break! It takes time for big positions to change course without tipping the boat over before getting the chance to bail. How do like the nautical theme? To carry it a bit further, these could be thought of as "shots across the bow", or signs of initial weakness in the trend. Good luck, and may farce be with us.

[jarbo456]

well, things are looking pretty bullish so far. AUD/JPY up by 60 pips making the IHS look a bit better, but not yet confirmed.

EUR/USD also up by 40 pips, but more importantly jumped over a fib level.

[MrMiyagi]

I think we gap up and go to 1290 Monday. Just a hunch, I don't think it is going down anytime soon aside from regular small drops.
Call it the Kringle effect.

[99er]

Sunday Evening Updates

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd_13.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/es_13.html
YM http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/ym_13.html

Have a nice evening.