09/07/2019 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row means 76% chances higher high ahead so still some room up at least.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is Department" : The key point of focus is Breakout gap. with this type of gap the higher it goes the farther it will fall. gap need to be filled for a healthy market short term. bigger picture bulls had made a big progress in term of short term strength momentum and internals. Dips will bought.
Dip buyers won, however we sliced it.

Momentum and liquidity are improving over all.

Short term is a little overbought at many metrics. My wishful thinking is we will have a bleep pull back in a day or two before moving up higher. Warning:a drop back under 61.8% this time will force me to rethinking the bullishness. for now find excuse to buy the dip as long as it stays above that level. keep it simple. Peace!

[Trades with cats]

This was in my twitter feed from several sources. It says very clearly that the longer term view is negative. Now I know that some say with interest rates below zero equities should have a higher value. If that is true then where is the cross over between increasing multipals driven by central bank market manipulation and declining income. My big problem with the whole all is good theory is Japan. They have an extra couple of decades of this stuff and the result is some of the lowest market valuations in the world and extremely low corporate debt levels. Some would say because of the lessons learned when they had too much debt. Still the path we follow seems to have been blazed by them so I really question the basis for saying current valuations are rational. Waiting to read the you should have seen it coming if China (largest debt load in history) blows up.

Second point, the chart I don't need to post. Once again another study is pointing out that the only net money going into stocks for a decade has been corporate cash.