09/18/2019 Live Update

[Cobra]

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no idea up or down from here. roller coaster show at 2 pm.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/09 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Presser starts at 2:30. He will have to explain liquidity situation. Twitter feed reminding us of the repo facility they set up in 2008. That was a band aid on a gushing wound.

[JFR]

ES daily. In a base, above the EMA 20, below the top of the base.

[JFR]

Overnight gap down, and then some, on ES, NQ, YM and RTY.

[JFR]

Looking for support. Gotta check some ETF holdings. Back later.

[Al_Dente]

note FDX

[Al_Dente]

repos explained
https://www.ft.com/content/345da16e-d96 ... 216ebe1f17

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/09 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Super light volume last night. Lots of big traders have hedging stuff going on as we move into the quad witch. Looks like some of that going on now as the large trade detector is going off (circles on chart)

[Al_Dente]

Rob Hanna
“…how SPY has performed between the time of the announcement and the NYSE close [INTRADAY] on Fed Days since Mr. Powell took over.
[Spoiler: The market has struggled]
https://quantifiableedges.com/post-anno ... l-arrived/

[Trades with cats]

repos explained
https://www.ft.com/content/345da16e-d96 ... 216ebe1f17

Thanks for that. Not once though does it mention the new Chair of New York fed fired the two experienced leaders of their 145 person trading desk team leaving them without leadership about 2 months ago. It also failed to mention that the banks needed the cash by 8:30 but that same Fed trading desk group failed to act until 9:30 or so making a complete failure of their control of the money supply. I figure the real reporters will be asking Jay about this mess in between the lobbed softballs from the reporters wasting all our time.

The money center banks own the NY Fed. Wondering how long until current chair leaves early.

[BullBear52x]

I on the sell rip today, Fed or no Fed.

Simply TA.

[Trades with cats]

FT 71's educated guess on where we could go after 2

[Heck]

All Three C/P Option Sentiment Indices = DOWN

[Al_Dente]

70.4% probability of easing
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/intere ... -fomc.html

[ccash04]

repos explained
https://www.ft.com/content/345da16e-d96 ... 216ebe1f17

Not sure how it directly affects equities other than if this funding stress continues, there could be a loss of confidence in Fed. It bears monitoring.

One thing to watch is SOFR as well, which is supposed to replace LIBOR but how can it if it is going to have volatility like it showed the last day or 2.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/sofr

[Cobra]

so far it's just a range day, waiting for the 2 pm roller coaster show, shall we? possible range high here?

[Al_Dente]

Once again, McElligott is confusing,
But I do understand this:
“… I see capacity where we could slingshot to the upside in Stocks, and fast …“
And more:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomur ... to+zero%29

[Trades with cats]

Nomura's zinger, for me, is that a third of the options gamma keeping us pinned to ES 3,000 goes away Friday. I am in agreement with him that the markets will confuse balance sheet growth (which is already happening) with QE and send us up.