Cobra's Market View

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to info@cobrasmarketview.com.

========================================================================================================================================================================

no idea up or down from here. roller coaster show at 2 pm.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/09 ... ay-update/

Presser starts at 2:30. He will have to explain liquidity situation. Twitter feed reminding us of the repo facility they set up in 2008. That was a band aid on a gushing wound.

ES daily. In a base, above the EMA 20, below the top of the base.

Overnight gap down, and then some, on ES, NQ, YM and RTY.

Looking for support. Gotta check some ETF holdings. Back later.

note FDX

repos explained
https://www.ft.com/content/345da16e-d96 ... 216ebe1f17

Super light volume last night. Lots of big traders have hedging stuff going on as we move into the quad witch. Looks like some of that going on now as the large trade detector is going off (circles on chart)

Rob Hanna
“…how SPY has performed between the time of the announcement and the NYSE close [INTRADAY] on Fed Days since Mr. Powell took over.
[Spoiler: The market has struggled]
https://quantifiableedges.com/post-anno ... l-arrived/

Al_Dente wrote:repos explained
https://www.ft.com/content/345da16e-d96 ... 216ebe1f17

Thanks for that. Not once though does it mention the new Chair of New York fed fired the two experienced leaders of their 145 person trading desk team leaving them without leadership about 2 months ago. It also failed to mention that the banks needed the cash by 8:30 but that same Fed trading desk group failed to act until 9:30 or so making a complete failure of their control of the money supply. I figure the real reporters will be asking Jay about this mess in between the lobbed softballs from the reporters wasting all our time.

The money center banks own the NY Fed. Wondering how long until current chair leaves early.

I on the sell rip today, Fed or no Fed.

Simply TA.

FT 71's educated guess on where we could go after 2

All Three C/P Option Sentiment Indices = DOWN

70.4% probability of easing
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/intere ... -fomc.html

Al_Dente wrote:repos explained
https://www.ft.com/content/345da16e-d96 ... 216ebe1f17

Not sure how it directly affects equities other than if this funding stress continues, there could be a loss of confidence in Fed. It bears monitoring.

One thing to watch is SOFR as well, which is supposed to replace LIBOR but how can it if it is going to have volatility like it showed the last day or 2.

https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/sofr

so far it's just a range day, waiting for the 2 pm roller coaster show, shall we? possible range high here?

Once again, McElligott is confusing,
But I do understand this:
“… I see capacity where we could slingshot to the upside in Stocks, and fast …“
And more:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomur ... to+zero%29

Nomura's zinger, for me, is that a third of the options gamma keeping us pinned to ES 3,000 goes away Friday. I am in agreement with him that the markets will confuse balance sheet growth (which is already happening) with QE and send us up.