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09/21/2019 Weekend Update

09/21/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Sep 20, 2019 4:44 pm

Down 1 week, the next week has 61% chances to close up.
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Re: 09/21/2019 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:45 pm

From "It is what it is department" Key words Selling with High Volume at top area marked the TOP, ATH resistance is clear and at the same time bottom support area is clear for longer term, best put is we are in a bullish consolidation phase for now.
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For short term, the selling on Friday was strong with big volume, signified the short term top.
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It is a common knowledge that during a sideways consolidation phase it is the toughest place to position a trade, so, what I do is to select the time frame that make the most sense to me so I can identify the trend. This time I choose the distance between support and resistance (top chart) as my focus, see noted on chart below on my focus, Going into next week I am leaning bearish with the caution that IFa price regains above 5 DMA it will be bullish, Bulls are down but not out! Trade well, Peace!
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: 09/21/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sat Sep 21, 2019 3:02 pm

Mis understanding on the Fed's repo window.

Apparently some people who do not know how to tie their shoes are jumping on shock stories to sell us something we don't want. A reverse repurchase agreement has a maturity at which time the borrower repays the loan by 'repurchasing' the collateral.I know it sounds like a gimmick after all if you have 100 million in Treasuries why not just sell them. Well we are not a free and open economy there are rules and regulations that would make that a difficult process in the eyes of the regulators and the shareholders. But the Fed's money window is open and the reverse repos let you raise that money very very quickly without triggering any accounting events. Unless something goes wrong with the Intel 386 processor powered PC which has your Fed wire transfer ID board in it. Don't ask me how I know. :D

So are these 30 day repos, no they are 1 day repos. The Feds 75 billion is just getting recycled every day. Now when they open the term facility, well that is another story. Does any of this affect the economy? I don't know but there appear to be lots and lots of opinions out there. Personally I think I have a hunch. The Fed has been draining money out of the system for several quarters. Congress just said burden the future spend it now causing the Treasury to raise 350 billion between around now and year end. The Fed did a rate cut and suddenly around 200 billion (I could easily be off on these numbers but in both cases it was A LOT) in new corporate debt hits the street. Oh and the yield cure is inverted so you could no longer borrow short term and buy 10 year or what ever Treasuries and make a positive spread.

The 15 or so Primary Dealers (Goldman, Citi etc) get to re-sell US Government debt to the public. In return for that they have had to guarantee that we will not have a failed a Treasury auction. So inverted yield cure hits at the same time as massive new Treasury borrowings kick off competing with massive new private borrowings. Word has it the primary Dealers have a lot of inventory and then we are surprised to learn they have run out of cash so the Fed has had to open up the lending window. Sort of a Heimlich maneuver for the banks choking on Government paper. Just like the ECB does.

Well Katy bar the door here comes the big one. Buy gold, bullets and MRI's will be the headlines from all the usual suspects. Let me ask a question. Will most of that 200 billion in new corporate debt go into new production lines and inventory or will it be like Microsoft and Apple and get released into the stock market? That extra 350 billion that Congress wants to spend before the election, do you think somehow we will see that reflected in GDP numbers sometime in 2020?

Oh, but is the USA a maverick country out there doing this while everyone else maintains proper northern European restraint? More like we are the last to join the party.

Will this big push do the trick and keep the expansion going until November 2020 ? I wish I knew, but as liquidity is the mother's milk of the stock market I will be limiting my short positions to day trades now that the We Work IPO has been pulled. And I won't be stockpiling bullets and MRI's. :lol:
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Re: 09/21/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Sep 21, 2019 5:48 pm

"... there isn’t a more reliable time of the year to have a selloff than this upcoming week."
"Since 1960 the week following the 3rd Friday in September has produced the most bearish results of any week."
https://quantifiableedges.com/the-weake ... 19-update/
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