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11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby fehro » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:47 pm

interesting similarities to note... but I lean to a gap down
Last edited by fehro on Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby waverider » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:47 pm

laoguo wrote:What if VIX and SPY both close read, any implication? Cobra?


bullish
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby MrMiyagi » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:47 pm

I'm probably a little early but bought a bit of SLW here.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:48 pm

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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby laoguo » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:49 pm

waverider wrote:
laoguo wrote:What if VIX and SPY both close read, any implication? Cobra?


bullish


any statistical advantage? waverider? :)
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:49 pm

Mongoose wrote:
Cobra wrote:
Mongoose wrote:Cobra -- have you ever heard of a "left translated cycle"?

Do you think the market may be in one now, or in the process of forming one?

I was doing some reading about it, and from what I could understand, it seemed to suggest an explanation as to why your "prediction" that the August lows would be broken lower, and that it might take a few months to express that . . . I thought that was very interesting to compare.

If you have any thoughts on that, it would be appreciated. thx.


never heard that.


I am an economist, not a TA expert, however, if I understand the explanation of the cycle, since the S&P 500 support level was broken yesterday, then the cycle bottom is expected within the next 5-7 days -- which I understand to be lower than 1080.
I thought it was interesting to see one theory express a similar theory from different view points.

As an economist I see liquidity drying up faster than water in Death Valley -- building up to levels just prior to the financial crisis and the market collapse. (even during that time the equity markets were ignoring the rising risks.) Banks are highly sensitive to lending to each other, and they are reducing their lending to emerging markets while they hastily try to recapitalize. So, I am short banks/financials and emerging markets.
I also see that the bond market is beginning to price in deflation for an extended period of time in various countries -- in particular take a look at Italian bond yields.
20% of S&P earnings come from Europe -- at some point, the market will have to acknowledge that.

Any cash I keep it in USD vs any other currency.

Thanks Cobra - have a nice weekend.


Mongoose, I totally agree with your economic assessment. When bank lending is drying up, bank stocks are dropping like rocks, politicians cannot do their jobs, low employment growth, and significant global risks emanating from Europe and Asia, I cannot see the rational for 3=% growth in the US.

The market seems to be pricing in a decorrelation scenario rather than actual problems from Europe and Asia which makes me a serious bear.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:50 pm

MrMiyagi wrote:I'm probably a little early but bought a bit of SLW here.


Love those guys.

Waiting for a pullback to add some SLW and AUY.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby noob » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:51 pm

Cobra wrote:20 min to go, OE day, anything can happen. bears need pray, as long as we close flat today, then it's a victory which if indeed I'd explain in the weekend report.


Thanks Cobra, victory for bulls or bears?
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby nikman » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:51 pm

Cobra wrote:20 min to go, OE day, anything can happen. bears need pray, as long as we close flat today, then it's a victory which if indeed I'd explain in the weekend report.


Cobra, victory for the bears or bulls if we close flat today? Thanks!
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby MrMiyagi » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:51 pm

noob wrote:Thanks Cobra, victory for bulls or bears?


Victory for brokers.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby waverider » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:52 pm

laoguo wrote:
waverider wrote:
laoguo wrote:What if VIX and SPY both close read, any implication? Cobra?


bullish


any statistical advantage? waverider? :)


Not that I know of, but what generally happens when $VIX falls? SPY rises, I wouldn't want to be long over the weekend anyways.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby CognitiveDissonance » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:53 pm

EFA wrote:
tdo722 wrote:
Petsamo wrote:
MrMiyagi wrote:Looks like I`ll be holding TZA through the weekend.
I bet Monday huge gap up, Tuesday I eat cat food.

You bought TZA using unsettled funds?


I love eating kibbles too. :)


You guys are too funny!!! Cat food is better than junk food, isnt't it?
Plus nothing seems very strong on the bull side.... bulls have been very disappointing today! :lol:



Remember, the market is there to fool us - especially opex fridays.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby jarbo456 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:54 pm

VIX is down 6%, S&P is flat. interesting dichotomy.

VIX hourly looks a bit bearish. at least for another day or 3 me thinks.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby KENA » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:56 pm

Cobra..Thanks for the wild week..See everyone next week.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Petsamo » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:56 pm

My spreadsheet indicates a gap up on Monday, so I placed a small bet on F (200 shares x 10.10).
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:58 pm

well, guess that's if for today. the overall picture is not good for bulls, I'll, as usually explain this in the weekend report. Thank you guys, I'll see you the next Monday.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby 99er » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:59 pm

Last chart: Bear Porn

DWCF Weekly http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/dwcf_18.html

Have a great weekend, folks!
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Me XMan » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:00 pm

Where's teh stick save???
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:00 pm

jarbo456 wrote:VIX is down 6%, S&P is flat. interesting dichotomy.

VIX hourly looks a bit bearish. at least for another day or 3 me thinks.


It is still in that trend channel I posted this morning. If it fills the 29 or 30 box on the P&F chart that would mean we head lower.

With the potential news flow next week surrounding the deficit panel I am leaning towards a breakout on the upside.
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Re: 11/18/2011 Intraday Watering

Postby Cobra » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:00 pm

once again, don't forget our poll: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=368

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