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10/05/2019 Weekend Update

10/05/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:48 pm

SPY down 3 weeks in a row, buy at the Friday close, HOLD until the very first up week, you have 77% chances to make money with profit factor 1.9 which is not bad.
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Re: 10/05/2019 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:50 pm

From 'It is what it is Department" Key focus is Trading a range bound market.Internals are bearish and price action is clear we are still in a bullish consolidation phase since the daily buy is not failing, we don't make a new high but the buy has not fail either, the current market moods are fearful and bearish but the price action of the last two days tells me that the liquidity is still good. (not bad yet). Looking at internals I am agreed that this run up will not sustain unless the internals are turning positive quickly. Bullish Percentage (both weekly and daily) is very bearish
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59% of SPX stocks are under 20 day moving average.
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Daily Short term momentum are still pointing down and bearish.
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Lets look at the Only Price Pays activities, a reversal on Thursday got a gap reversal to confirm it. so, for intraday I see nothing to suggest bulls are weakening at all. Monday before market open will be easy to spot, strong opening I believe range low bottom is in for now, a lower trade will be screaming sell intraday. I am leaning bearish in the early part of the week,expecting a pull back no later than Tuesday before heading higher or failing to new low all together.Trend lines that I am looking at right now.
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Range Bound market view
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Deja vu?

Postby ocassional observer » Sat Oct 05, 2019 2:16 pm

Haven't we been here before?
Monday is crucial. likely some pullback, if it closes below MA50 a backtest is very likely. If it manages to hold above than this time is different.

041019.jpg
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Re: 10/05/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Oct 05, 2019 3:52 pm

PLEASE vote Saturday and Sunday:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
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Re: 10/05/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:14 pm

SPX PLUS SOME GROUPS HISTORICALLY CONSIDERED LEADING GROUPS, daily:
It takes a bit for these to regain and then better their 20 MAs
Until then, the 20 MA is resistance
105leaders.png
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Re: 10/05/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:14 pm

The St. Louis Federal Reserve just added the “Sahm Rule Recession Indicator” to its massive FRED system.
What is it?
The “Sahm Rule Recession Indicator” was developed by FED economist Claudia Sahm. It flags the onset of recession more quickly than the current process … and it aims to be more dependable than some of the other metrics known to throw off false signals.

"… When the three-month average unemployment rate rises half a percentage point above the low of the previous year, the economy has just or is about to enter a period of contraction. It has happened every time since the 1970s. "

NO RED FLAGS YET

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN1WJ12J
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Re: 10/05/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Trades with cats » Sun Oct 06, 2019 2:30 pm

Thanks for that recession indicator Pasta Boss. It looks like a good indicator to me, cleanest dirty shirt in the closet sort of thing. I think they are all fraught with peril for several reasons.

Government has stated that the jobs numbers have been too high this year so trouble ahead for the number cruncher s. Other thing is dying unicorns,trucking companies computer makers auto companies and more have all switched to laying off. Just to compound the clouds in the crystal balls we are moving into the season work force hiring period. Well with consumer spending and all the brick and mortar store closings good luck to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on getting the seasonal adjustment factors correct this time. :?
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