Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

   

Weekend Watering

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Nov 19, 2011 2:32 pm

PAGING 99er
Following yr lead, I’ve been watching $DWCF dailies for a while now; and don’t quite get it yet.
Is it a clone of the broad based Wilshire 5000? If so, why u not use $WLSH? Or is it another animal entirely?
At first glance DWCF appears redundant to $WLSH/SPX/dow 30, but I noticed last week (?) the DWCF was below 200ma (neg diverg) while the Dow was clearly above 200ma and SPX was sitting right on top of 200ma.
How do u interpret DWCF? Do u use it as “leading” signal or look for divergences or what?
If u have time, would appreciate brief explanation, or perhaps a link to a site that clears up all mysteries. THANKS VERY MUCH
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 23240
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Sat Nov 19, 2011 2:33 pm

mozart wrote:US Thanksgiving is on Thursday.
Traditionally the day before and day after market has been positive, 85% of time.
Monday is suppose to be small pullback, Tuesday slightly positive, Wed. and Friday very positive, following Monday deep negative.
But what will happen this week?

I am going short on the open Monday unless there is a huge story to push the markets higher.

We might get a rise on Wednesday and Friday but honestly the only reason for people to believe the market will go higher is not newsflow but historical trends.

If we are not already in a recession we are teetering on edge. Hong Kong is growing at 0.1% and the EU at 0.2% during the third quarter. We are counting on the US consumer, already hit with high unemployment and inflation, to bail out the global economy.
User avatar
dcurban1
 
Posts: 297
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:59 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Nov 19, 2011 2:37 pm

BullBear: I like your levels, and I’ll keep in mind your views!
Thanx!
cougar
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Nov 19, 2011 3:03 pm

Thanks cougar,
I haven't looked at yours/anybodys charts here yet, just trying to catch up on mine

only mellow music is allowed for weekend study
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_aVQmhp ... re=related
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 23240
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sat Nov 19, 2011 3:28 pm

Al_Dente

I came across DWCF since it is one of the default indices in Think or Swim; I have no specific reason to be using it other than mere convenience and the fact that it's the entire US stock market.

Music to Occupy by...from Third Eye Blind

Article http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/11/18/t ... l-st-song/

Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-p4hgjeU6Zc
User avatar
99er
 
Posts: 3686
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 3:43 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Nov 19, 2011 4:00 pm

Have been working on “better” indicator to show me overbought/oversold zones on my 5min INTRADAY.
Already tried most over the years: macd and sto with various tweaks, slopes etc etc etc.
Although I like RSI, I’m now working CCI (Commodity Channel Index) 5 min, as it shows me clear divergence signals, which are important, but RARELY perfect as intraday turn indicators (nothing is perfect). Also it’s available inside my “overlay” box and RSI isn’t…. need that when “stacking” indices…

I tested CCI 35, 30, 25, 20, 15 etc., and finally settled on CCI-30 at the moment, for its clarity in showing me neg/pos diverg, also because it stays put at the centerline when it is supposed to. (Note the “fails” for instance 17 Nov, when positive divergence persisted on all indices, for half the day, while price ignored it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249130591

YOUR MILEAGE MAY VARY… I expect to continue tweaking and revising this, just thought I’d share this GRAIN OF SALT, KOOL-AID, for potential comments. Also note: this is another “soft” indicator, based on price but averaged up the arse. Further, my “testing” is eyeballs only, not sophisticated computer backtesting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQTzO2eR ... re=related

PS: thanks 99er, appreciate that
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 23240
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby ocassional observer » Sat Nov 19, 2011 4:31 pm

some 2008 history rhymes:
from cobra's long term signals
2008 similarities.jpg

the conference board coincident/lagging ratio
coincident to lagging ratio.jpg
coincident to lagging ratio.jpg (36.23 KiB) Viewed 7597 times

the fed's moves have distorted the leading economic indicator, but one can construct a leading index by looking at the ratio between the coincident to lagging index. the idea is that as the economy slows the lagging grows faster than the coincident so the ratio falls. you can see the divergence between the market and this ratio in 2008 and today. when reality and the market diverge, reality wins. you can also see the difference between the 2010 decline and 2011. this looks to be following the ECRI definition for the conditions of a recession instead of slowdown: pronounced, pervasive and prolonged.

the OECD cycle clock
cLI oecd mar 08.png

CLI oecd sep.png

the values are for mar 08 and sep 11 as the leading index is published a month and a half after the month which is charted...
the cycle clock is built by charting the value of the index vs the rate of change (physicist's note: in physics charting a function vs its derivative is defined as phase space. this is very useful in charting cyclical functions, since these functions draw a closed loop around the origin. an harmonic oscillator is a good example.)
we see here a similar phenomenon to 2008. while the leading index and consumer confidence fell dramatically, industrial production is still in expansion. this divergence fooled the market to rally, but the economy later caught up with the leading indexes.
i whole-heartedly recommend playing with this indicator here:
http://stats.oecd.org/mei/bcc/default.html
ocassional observer
 
Posts: 138
Joined: Wed Apr 06, 2011 12:07 pm


Re: Weekend Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Sat Nov 19, 2011 8:52 pm

It is hard for me to get bullish when I look at the charts of gold, silver, and copper.

Oh the REAL budget deadline is not Wednesday but Sunday night when a program has to be delivered to a watchdog panel for number crunching. Unless there is some miraculous breakthrough I cannot see anything getting done.

But hey, Congress voted that by law pizza is now a vegetable.
User avatar
dcurban1
 
Posts: 297
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:59 pm


Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:30 pm

Altogether, I am now bearish about “fancy metals”.
We shall start with silver (SLV)...which found a meager support at 2/8 MM, after an impulsive recent drop…Yes...I know all the stories with the Chinese margins…but a drop is a drop…and today’s support was a fake!!
I see it headed to 25 (base of the octave).
Attachments
SLVgif.GIF
cougar
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:42 pm

The "most technical" palladium (PALL) hit an "oblique support" inside the FORK (61.8%)...and stayed there…How nice!
But , my guess (based on general market manip. analysis) is that it will drop through it on Monday...
Attachments
PALLgif.GIF
cougar
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:49 pm

Copper (JJC) dropped decisively through an important technical support level ( 44.70)…and I see it going lower…maybe through 41.87... all the way to the 37.73 zone..
Attachments
JJCgif.GIF
Last edited by cougar on Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
cougar
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sat Nov 19, 2011 11:02 pm

As expected, GLD (gold) is the trickiest of all…I will wait to see if it drops thorough the MAE(13).
The best trading scenario would be a reversal at MAE (34) as it happened a few times in the past…which should be followed LONG!
No play, right now! Watch it and be ready!

===========

NOTE: For those interested in the “Cycles’ Translation” mentioned on Friday…GLD is a typical example of Cycles’ Right Translation, in a strong, bullish gold market.
Attachments
gldGIF.GIF
cougar
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby fibo618 » Sun Nov 20, 2011 12:04 am

Cobra,

Sorry if this was asked bfore, Wouldnt Oil drop along with the others, if so, why buy UCO on dip, is that part of the system?
fibo618
 
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:00 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Sun Nov 20, 2011 12:48 am

Someone is working a major long oil/short natural gas play right now. The charts are showing a significant divergence.

112011 natgas oil.JPG
User avatar
dcurban1
 
Posts: 297
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:59 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:29 am

oooo…looky here….schwab now offers J.P.Morgan research. Just what I needed, more redundant squid research that zh doesn’t cover every five minutes.
I did find a GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK RATE WATCH table of interest, glance at the differential in rates between “developed” and “emerging” nations, also note the official “Euro area” rate which helps put in perspective the greek/Italy/spain bonds we’ve been watching all week at crisis rate levels.
This link is ONLY for rate followers who LOVE tables with too-many numbers
http://screencast.com/t/YW96w8J8uEk4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VqoxOcE ... re=related
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 23240
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby trendfollower » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:31 am

Interesting article from the past week.

"The Final Market Rally Up Before The Big Leg Down Is Near An End"

http://goo.gl/rGX8v
trendfollower
 
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:58 am

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 20, 2011 11:05 am

Anyone notice the top groups/sectors at Friday’s close (on my narrow view)
1. SLV
2. IYR
3. XLU (defensive = bear)
4. DGP

Yes IYR again, that little shite real estate ETF which I’ve been trying to ignore for almost three years, as the housing debacle told me that ETF fur sure can’t go anywhere but down, whereupon it doubled/tripled before my very eyes. It’s once again tracking SPY, which is its favorite pastime (usually correlates near 90% with spy). IYR is still on a daily Al-Dente-sell-signal, but the fact that it made the top of the heap Friday suggests that little flag should be watched. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =249147292
“Experts” contend that the sector was so bashed in the ’08 - ’09 crash that it had nowhere to go but up, but analyst never/rarely use the words “short squeeze”. IYRs largest holdings are: SPG, PSA, EQR, NLY, etc: http://etfdb.com/etf/IYR/holdings/
Most are market beta, and most are high short interest; hence IYR can sustain a rally on short-covering alone, plus the pile-on thereafter.
This is a very malleable site where u can change the symbol(s) in the “symbols” box, just above “company” and hit the “compare” button at right.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-compar ... lected=SPG

Additionally, IYR holds two of the highest-short-interest stocks on the planet, with ginormous squeeze potential: LEN (beta 1.5, and 20% of its outstanding shares are short) and KBH (beta 2.0, and 36% of os are short).
LEN can leap a point a day just on a squeeze, note 16 Nov for example. And the PSA roller coaster can move four points intraday when squeezed.

And here’s my best chart of the day so far: http://screencast.com/t/iIgOXwjWO93f
User avatar
Al_Dente
 
Posts: 23240
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sun Nov 20, 2011 11:51 am

On a previously published SLV (130 min) chart I added a “Lady Windermere’s Fan” (blue) which is actually a Fibonacci Harmonic Fan, with a virtual origin.
A first target zone thus appeared.
Attachments
SLVgif.GIF
cougar
 
Posts: 1914
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 9:25 am

PreviousNext

Return to Traders Lounge

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 6 guests