Cobra's Market View

Up 2 weeks in a row, 75% chances higher high ahead the next week, so likely still some up rooms.

EARNINGS
Monday, October 21 …. not much

Tuesday, October 22
Before the open: HOG, MCD, PG, PHM, TRV, UPS
After the close: TXN, WHR

Wednesday, October 23
Before the open: BA, CAT, LLY, NSC, WM
After the close: EBAY, PYPL, F, MSFT, ORLY, TSLA, XLNX

Thursday, October 24
Before the open: MMM, CMCSA, DOW, HSY, NOK, TWTR
After the close: AMZN, FSLR, INTC, TMUS, V

Friday, October 25
Before the open: VZ
After the close: not much

From: " It is what it is Department" Point of focus Bullish signal reversedWarning! We could look back since the last leg of a run up, some may say it's irrational exuberance market, almost everyday we had negative closed but the market managed to have a higher highs, if we were to follow price action alone we would not see this move up, thanks to the internals indicators. Finally the stars, the moon, and the sun were aligned in bears direction, I hope the captain obvious will not disappoint us in the week to come. I am expecting weakness to continue until we hit a daily mid BB OR unfilled gaps area to look for some supports. last Thursday and Friday were the two trading days that gave us the strongest bearish reversal yet, and as you can see below what I note on my diary each trading day, price action alone can be deceiving. Trend line breakdown with %B <.5, I think the high will hold for few more days, look to unfilled gap area at the minimum on this pull back. Friday action indicated trend down to continue, a regain above 2995 will be another disappointment day for bears comes Monday. Trade well, Peace!

Last week price action, Trend following technique. Now bears should feel better. watch the invisible hands+-

WEEKLY, longer term
Top panel: The NYAD made a new high, bull
Second panel: The volume on SPX did not, so not bull
Third panel: Note how the “participation indicator” (percent of SPX stocks above 50ma) tends to give off good clues.
(Recall that generally above 50% is bull and below 50% is bear.)
See February, when about 90% of stocks were on-board with the bull, compared with >80% in July, and 63.65% now. Geeeze Louise, could we please get some help here. This needs radical improvement. If we manage to squeak out an ATH given these numbers … It will be a weak high...

It’s rare for Al Brooks to talk politics.
Scroll down to “White House insider trading” for his “fact check” of William Cohan’s scathing Vanity Fair article. Brooks CANNOT confirm the numbers. This should be of interest to all ES traders.
https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/mar ... time-high/

A couple of Bob's rules that apply. First most chart watchers are in agreement that we are headed for a new all time high. Expected action in Apple alone will do most of the heavy lifting. But my concern is rule 9. When All the Experts and Forecasts Agree, Something Else Will Happen. When we do make the new high then I will worry about rule 7. Markets Are Strongest When They Are Broad and Weakest When They Are Narrow as well as rule 5. The Public Buys Most at the Top and Least at the Bottom.

So the issue for me is that the advance rests on the shoulders of the FANNGs as it has for some time. According to the news this week 2020 has the S&P 500 spending more than their cash flow. Supposedly we are expecting a 15% reduction in buyback cash. They are also expecting the decline in earnings to continue. On paper it sounds like a new weak high followed by a longer term decline. Time will tell but it would fit Bob's rules.

After I read the article in Vanity Fair yesterday I was tempted to post my own this does not make sense comments but I erased it instead. Now today everyone who trades is saying that it is a fantasies hit piece. Starting out with the CME.

The political hit people in the media love to make amazing outrageous claims and when they were the headlines in the grocery store tabloids it was OK, but these days mostly serious media is getting involved and I am afraid they are destroying all credibility. You can only cry wolf so many times.

Fell off my chair laughing when I saw that two elected members of congress want an investigation. Give me a break, Congress changed the law so their staffers could legally trade on inside information.

Upcoming week has $26.025B in T-bills & Coupons scheduled to be bought.

Trades with cats wrote:After I read the article in Vanity Fair yesterday I was tempted to post my own this does not make sense comments but I erased it instead. Now today everyone who trades is saying that it is a fantasies hit piece. Starting out with the CME.

The political hit people in the media love to make amazing outrageous claims and when they were the headlines in the grocery store tabloids it was OK, but these days mostly serious media is getting involved and I am afraid they are destroying all credibility. You can only cry wolf so many times.

Fell off my chair laughing when I saw that two elected members of congress want an investigation. Give me a break, Congress changed the law so their staffers could legally trade on inside information.

It was a total joke.

They said 386,000 contracts were traded by "someone" on 8/23 in the last 10 minutes.

I mean this int hard to look up. Less than 300,000 contracts were traded in total in the last 10 minutes.

The media is a joke