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11/02/2019 Weekend Update

11/02/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri Nov 01, 2019 4:32 pm

Up 4 weeks in a row, the next week has 66% chances to close up and 81% chance to make a higher high so bulls are in good shape for now.
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Re: 11/02/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:23 pm

"Dow Jones Data Group data going back to 1950 indicates that when the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index close out October with as sizable a gain as they have already notched, positive returns for the rest of the year are all but assured."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... nk=sfmw_tw
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Re: 11/02/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:07 pm

AAPL "... iPhone sales completed a year of declines... but the drop may have been much worse if it were not for a seemingly booming trade-in program."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-i ... =rss&rss=1
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Re: 11/02/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:41 pm

So far, 358 of the S&P 500 SPX companies have reported earnings, more than 70%, and earnings have declined 2.66% from the same quarter a year ago, according to a FactSet tally. It could take a miracle at this point to reverse that trend and avoid prolonging the earnings recession, especially because most of the largest companies have already reported. Current projections peg this quarter’s decline will eventually be 2.78%.
(Disney, the last of the dow stocks to report, posts EPS Thursday after the close).
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Re: 11/02/2019 Weekend Update

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Nov 03, 2019 3:20 pm

From It is what it is department" the words ...Bullish, Overbought, and Complacent. I am expecting a relief rally pullback as soon as tomorrow or Tuesday before any more grind up. for trend following dip will be bought. Complacent when $CPC <.8 expecting a sideways to down in a day or two.
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Squeeze to the max at new ATH, needing a breather.
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Short term trend following is bullish and dip will be bought but with all the overbought conditions mentioned above, counter trending here is my trading plan into the early part of the week. Trade well, Peace!
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: 11/02/2019 Weekend Update

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:59 pm

SPX overbought on the daily... Overbought usually forces a day/few days correction, but before a BIG drop, momentum usually wanes (it doesn’t always have to work that way), a phenomena Cobra likens to your foot off/on the accellerator.
Al Brooks described it this weekend, paraphrased: The bears have to stop the rally from continuing up before they can make it reverse down. That is a process that takes time. At a minimum, the bears typically need a double top, which takes a few days/week to develop. But even that is usually not enough to reverse a strong bull trend. The bulls will buy the 1st reversal down, even if it is surprisingly strong. Consequently, the downside risk over the next few weeks is small.

Note the red arrows: the August and Sepember drops were preceeded by waning momentum, which the bears are now watching/waiting for....
Caveat: the chart is Heikin which can cause slight distortions.
113rsi.png.png


Pretzel: “The telltale sign of a b-wave high... is its three-wave structure.  A completed impulse wave, which is needed for a clean top or bottom, will always be five waves instead of three.  When you see three waves into a new high ..., then expect that the ensuing reversal is only temporary, and the market will retest/exceed the b-wave high. “
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