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Weekend Watering

Re: Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:15 am

Weekend Reading

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2 ... there.html

Honey gives it two thumbs up.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:38 am

Follow up VIX chart
I constructed this chart quite a while back after King Cobra’s earliest call for SPX ~1000.
I called this my “Cobra Is Usually Right” chart. I translated SPX (purple) into SPY (green) numbers, added the VIX (red) overlay, and I’ve been watching it ever since. As you can see, the VIX has something to prove here, and must be watched carefully.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =243529644
PS: And as u all know, Cobra’s weekend report now calls for short term “sell the bounce… could see sharp rebound but most likely it’s a sell opportunity…” and intermediate-term: “expect multiple weeks selling ahead, targeting june 2010 lows around spx 1010ish.” Note to Cobra: thank u for another brilliant “Market Outlook” 11/25

PPS: thanks cougar for “The Telegraph.” I was especially alarmed by the term “seizing-up” which was over-used in 2008 when the U.S. crisis dominoed throughout the known world (déjà vu). Here’s an Italian song ode to the Euro crisis:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtnvtFKS ... re=related
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Mr. BachNut » Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:43 am

I am posting the attached chart (which lays out two Tom DeMark technical signals) because the market is on track to deliver a TD Sequential Setup Buy signal on Tuesday. A number of big institutions follow DeMark and action on these signals, which are counter trend in nature. So, I keep an eye on them. When you combine this with the NYMO oversold condition, there is a good technical arguement for a bounce this week.

A few huge caveats. The TD "Setup" signal was a loser (IMO) in August. The big capitulation at the end of that move came after the signal. Waiting for the TD "Countdown" signal, which is more conservative, was a winner in August. We have not had a capitulation yet in this downdraft. The volumes have been relatively light. So, there is a risk that capitulation is yet to come. Also, captulations and crashes can come in spite of oversold conditions.

So, we could rally or we could crash first and then rally. Sounds like fun. It could be an interesting week.
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demark-indicator-rules.jpg
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:50 am


Thanks 99er for vix chart; I don’t really understand it.
I have a yellow post-it on my computer, translating 99er-vision into English.
If I’m correct, the grey grid is overall sense of direction; purple is target.
So….. up vix to fill-in the grey triangle (down spy), then breakdown vix to purple 26-ish zone (up spy)???
Sorry I’m so persistently weak at reading yr charts.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Mr. BachNut » Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:51 am

To clarify, if you are interested. I believe the TD Setup will recommend a Buy if Monday's SPX close is < 1215.65 and Tuesday's SPX close is < 1192.98. (You might want to double check this in case I screwed it up.) A close above those levels would disqualify the signal.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby cougar » Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:52 am



99er: Yes… Britannia might still rule the waves…but not the waterfalls.

Apropos: tomorrow is a Gann vibration date on the “SPX geometry chart”.
It should be a minor but tradable technical reversal or… acceleration on the downside.
Considering that the present acceleration is quite impressive, what would mean a further down-acceleration increase?
I better stop here elaborating on this subject…
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geomGIF.GIF
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby BullBear52x » Sun Nov 27, 2011 12:19 pm

Hello everyone, Thanks for all the great chart analysis, I got few minutes and here's my simple view. Long term up channel looking at 110, the fall is not over yet
spy1.JPG
Mid term down channel, we should get a bounce right here at mid channel line.
spy.JPG
short term channel, we are at the bottom of the down channel, I will expect a bounce off here also.
spy1a.JPG
I agreed with Dr.Al on $Vix, it's bullish to me at the moment the dip should be bought, see my long date MACD.
spy2.JPG
UUP here is heading to double top, always sell double top.
spy3.JPG
for all that said yellow lines got the last word. a trade above 116.5 is buy-able, a gap or a trade above 118.5 and hold is screaming buy. anything below 116.5 leave the core shorts positions untouched. GLTA
spy4.JPG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 12:23 pm

My stacked daily indices chart, posted only to note the slight strength in the Transports.
We know the INDU can often be a bit stronger than the other indices, as near half of the dow is highly susceptible to short squeezes and “window dressing”. But why the trannie “strength”? What are they transporting? Illegal drugs?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =248678638
PS: Mr Bach I ALWAYS appreciate yr Demark posts, thanks
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sun Nov 27, 2011 12:45 pm

Al_Dente

VIX Chart Explained

Simple is best but the VIX, given recent volatility, poses a real challenge to read. The "Big Picture" involves a general trend up, as indicated by the enumerated points of a large Wolfe Wave (Line 1-4-6 [off the chart] in Blue). Near term, a second, smaller Wolfe Wave (in Green)--not numbered--shows a target of around 42. And yet another WW (in Purple) shows the potential for a quick drop to around 26. This drop is not so likely as there is a bullish Butterfly (in Yellow) confirming the Green target above. Finally, a small channel (in Gold) hints at the near-term limits to any upside (or downside) move.

I find the VIX to be an interesting index to look at and to chart but I never actually use it for trading purposes.

Hope this helps. If you have further questions, just ask.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 1:39 pm

So… possibly the only thing folks are buying long is TLT/bear spy (that is, they were buying TLT until Friday).
One of my “where is the money going” charts shows that the conservative folks/funds are not buying defensives/staples/utilities etc., like they are supposed to during a general market decline.
This is one of those performance based charts wherein as u change the time frame the picture changes, but I’ve looked at it on a bunch of different time frames, and folks are still buying TLT (until Friday that is), and not much else? Anyone find something/anything that folks are actually BUYING long??
You can massage this chart and plug in all the usual suspects to find the money: China no, dollar yes, copper no, etc.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

(Thanks 99er)
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Sun Nov 27, 2011 2:07 pm

Al_Dente wrote:My stacked daily indices chart, posted only to note the slight strength in the Transports.
We know the INDU can often be a bit stronger than the other indices, as near half of the dow is highly susceptible to short squeezes and “window dressing”. But why the trannie “strength”? What are they transporting? Illegal drugs?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =248678638
PS: Mr Bach I ALWAYS appreciate yr Demark posts, thanks


Transports strength would be due to the high amount of online shopping which would use UPS, Fedex, etc. Traders are more than likely front running the expected jump in revenues.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 3:34 pm

Another thing to keep an eye on is $USD dollar which is nearing its Oct high resistance.
Ditto dollar futures ^DXH12, ditto UUP where the resistance looks to be ~$22.62.
And ditto eur/usd (inverted here as $USD/$XED) which appears ready to test 1.314 on the “real” eur/usd.
(I’m sure someone must have mentioned this already; sorry if it’s a repeat).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p ... =247550059

[thanks dcurban1: Following yr excellent logic re transports, I’d like then to see a bit of frontrunning in XLY and XRT and/or their big holdings amzn, tgt, nke, jcp, et al…. wouldn’t u?]
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Sun Nov 27, 2011 4:01 pm

I agree. We should see a bump up from retailers and XLY, and XRT based on the sales numbers.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 4:14 pm

dcurban1 wrote:I agree. We should see a bump up from retailers and XLY, and XRT based on the sales numbers.

Do u have any thursday/friday sales numbers... or ballpark?
[edit: thanks very much]
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby dcurban1 » Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:16 pm

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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby mac769 » Sun Nov 27, 2011 5:44 pm



I fully agree, but we might see some rebound on Monday based on a "good" Black Friday numbers, which is not necessarily a good signal anayway...
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sun Nov 27, 2011 6:05 pm

Weekend Reading

At this point there is zero possibility that Italy can refinance any portion of its $300b of 2012 maturing debt. If there is anyone at the table who still still thinks that Italy can pull off a miracle, they are wrong. I’m certain that the finance guys at the ECB and Italian CB understand this. I repeat, there is a zero chance for a market solution for Italy. Either the ECB (aka Germany) steps in and underwrites the debt with some form of Euro bonds or the IMF (aka the USA) steps in with some very serious money.

In the real world of global finance the reality is that any country that is forced to accept an IMF bailout is also blocked from issuing debt in the public markets. IMF (or other supranational debt) is ALWAYS senior to other indebtedness of the country. That’s just the way it works. When Italy borrows money from the IMF it automatically subordinates the existing creditors. Lenders hate this. They will vote with their feet and take a pass at Italian new debt issuance for a long time to come. Once the process starts, it will not end. There will be a snow ball of other creditors. That's exactly what happened in the 80's when Mexico failed; within a year two dozen other countries were forced to their debt knees

http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/ ... -week.html
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 7:11 pm

Quick update of the “Gerald Appel Trend Following Strategy” I posted last weekend. At that time the indices were a hair away from Appel’s 5/10/20 sell cross signal. You don’t even need to click (just for reference), all the indices are now on a full-blown SELL CROSS SIGNAL.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =249112933
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby 99er » Sun Nov 27, 2011 7:42 pm

Monday Morning Update

So honey, what's for breakfast?

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd_28.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/es_28.html

How about an equity ramp job?
Last edited by 99er on Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Weekend Watering

Postby Al_Dente » Sun Nov 27, 2011 8:29 pm

99er wrote:"...At this point there is zero possibility that Italy can refinance any portion of its $300b of 2012 maturing debt. If there is anyone at the table who still still thinks that Italy can pull off a miracle, they are wrong. I’m certain that the finance guys at the ECB and Italian CB understand this. I repeat, there is a zero chance for a market solution for Italy. Either the ECB (aka Germany) steps in and underwrites the debt with some form of Euro bonds or the IMF (aka the USA) steps in with some very serious money....In the real world of global finance the reality is that any country that is forced to accept an IMF bailout is also blocked from issuing debt in the public markets. IMF (or other supranational debt) is ALWAYS senior to other indebtedness of the country. That’s just the way it works. When Italy borrows money from the IMF it automatically subordinates the existing creditors. Lenders hate this. They will vote with their feet and take a pass at Italian new debt issuance for a long time to come. Once the process starts, it will not end. There will be a snow ball of other creditors. That's exactly what happened in the 80's when Mexico failed; within a year two dozen other countries were forced to their debt knees"
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/ ... -week.html

99er:
I’ve just read all the zh coverage of the “mystery money” that showed up on the FEDs “other account” (on 11/26) with funds accounted for except a little $72 billion or so, which ostensibly is what our FED will lend to the IMF for euro bailouts. Your Krasing article cites a $300 billion Italian debt maturing 2012. AND THAT’S JUST ITALY!! Many expect that a default would cause a domino Armageddon, but Krasting notes that “The policy makers are aware of this.” The only ray of light is that we may have “six months” of volatility and craziness before the end.
As you are an “ex-you-know-what”, don’t you think that the powers-that-be will pull out all the stops to find a last minute “fix” so we can at least play ostrich for a few more years? You’re scaring me dude; or was that your point?
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