12/06/2019 Market Recap

[Cobra]

Official comment is: "Double top or not, wait and see". Personally, you all know, I have been saying "don't trust bears". Believe me, I'd very much like the market to go down as you may all have noticed that the visits to this board has been decreasing dramatically - when the market keeps going up, nobody would be interesting in reading the market commentaries. Have you noticed, the visits jumped on the day when the market was down sharply?

[Cobra]

SUMMARY:

Started like an uptrend day but it's actually a range day, hard to make money, not easy to lose big either as if you read my recap long enough you should've remembered that once the EMA20 gets touched the trend is almost over.

NOTE:

Explained how I'd judge uptrend day here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3770&p=275375#p275375).

SPY made a breakout later so it all looked like a typical uptrend day.

By here it still looked like an uptrend day and breakout was more likely. However, if you read my recap long enough you should've remembered that once the EMA20 gets touched the trend is almost over so should be careful here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3770&p=275413#p275413).

Right but depends on where the stop loss was, it more likely would be a losing trade - called EMA gap long setup here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3770&p=275425#p275425). The setup looked perfect. And remember what I said: The perfecter the pattern the more likely it'd fail!

The setup worked on the 2nd try (red arrow, the 15:20 signal bar) and this is why I said "depends on where the stop loss was". Usually my stop loss won't be this large so I'd be stopped out if I followed the first EMA gap setup. Anyway, no conclusion drawn from the close.

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

• My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.

• Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.

• Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.