11/29/2011 Intraday Watering

[Petsamo]

KBE : The corrective structure of the pullback suggests that the rebound off Fridays´lod is not over

I watch KBE too. It's an unofficial leveraged ETF version of XLF

[soku]

do u guys follow muddy waters? remember fmcn was slaughtered couple days ago?
this morning zh posted:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/muddy-wat ... investable

carson block is on cnbc and saying they don't have a whole picture of the company. what does that mean? i think somebody is booking a ticket to go to jail.

add: fmcn is going crazy now. did u catch it?

[tdo722]

It's doing the final push-up to new HOD.

[SB73]

I once looked and it seemed that on green days the market finished in the top quartile of the days range like 85% of the time. Does anybody have a statistic on this? Moral of the story wait until close or early next day to generally go short the market. Optimism and hope abound going into close.

[tdo722]

I once looked and it seemed that on green days the market finished in the top quartile of the days range like 85% of the time. Does anybody have a statistic on this? Moral of the story wait until close or early next day to generally go short the market. Optimism and hope abound going into close.

Amen, for swing trades I'd prefer to get my shares in the after hours market once I determined a trend by watching the close. Sometimes you'll get better price than at the close.

[TWJ]

KBE : The corrective structure of the pullback suggests that the rebound off Fridays´lod is not over

I really agree with you! One more leg up to 1215 or so, maybe 1230.

[Cobra]

a little bigger picture, bulls need a decisive breakout here, failed to make a higher high here then the game is over because it's a clear 3 push up.

[tdo722]

a little bigger picture, bulls need a decisive breakout here, failed to make a higher high here then the game is over because it's a clear 3 push up.

so if the game is over for bulls that means we revisit the lows 1158 huh master?

[bullybear]

.
Guess who's comming to stay for a few days? OH NO, I forgot they were comming back! When will they be here? I'm not a 100% sure, but the email I got said first thing in the morning, unless their running a little late...

[Cobra]

2 bar reversal then a little lower low, bulls definitely don't want to see this.

[cougar]

The simplest and quite probable scenario: THEY keep it here, gyrating, for ~45 min, followed by a glorious RAMPO into the close…
In the meantime, the TICK and the TRIN could be engineered to intentionally mislead.

[tdo722]

close in RED and I load up on TZA and SPXU with a small call option OTM for insurance.

[Me XMan]

HAHAHAA! Like that death bear look.

.
Guess who's comming to stay for a few days? OH NO, I forgot they were comming back! When will they be here? I'm not a 100% sure, but the email I got said first thing in the morning, unless their running a little late...

Stock-Market-Death-30833.jpg

[CognitiveDissonance]

close in RED and I load up on TZA and SPXU with a small call option OTM for insurance.

I don't know dude, xlf and fas has been bought up all day, I think it's consolidation. But I'm being biased, I'm still in TNA.

[Cobra]

OK, false alarm, but the feeling is it'd go like this. purely feeling. I'm not good at range day. You know I'm kidding, right? How can you be wrong on trend day? Unless you always are thinking of reversal which rarely happens.

[Cobra]

a little bigger picture, bulls need a decisive breakout here, failed to make a higher high here then the game is over because it's a clear 3 push up.

so if the game is over for bulls that means we revisit the lows 1158 huh master?

yes.

[tdo722]

close in RED and I load up on TZA and SPXU with a small call option OTM for insurance.

I don't know dude, xlf and fas has been bought up all day, I think it's consolidation. But I'm being biased, I'm still in TNA.

close in green but not over 1.5%, then we gotta see one more card before betting to see the *river*

[tdo722]

a little bigger picture, bulls need a decisive breakout here, failed to make a higher high here then the game is over because it's a clear 3 push up.

so if the game is over for bulls that means we revisit the lows 1158 huh master?

yes.

Thank you!

[Me XMan]

You've got to be kidding there Martian dude.
Bulls never give up that easy.

a little bigger picture, bulls need a decisive breakout here, failed to make a higher high here then the game is over because it's a clear 3 push up.

so if the game is over for bulls that means we revisit the lows 1158 huh master?

yes.

[taggard]

it seems possible that early Dec will be interesting. we have a pretty epic confluence of events. The Euro Zone is under absurd pressure to announce some sort of liquidity or bond buying scheme. Having the markets sharply down into--the end of the year accounting--could cause some real issues for the euro banks. And there is already word of the govs over there trying to force banks to buy their bonds suggesting the stress levels are getting close even at the gov level. Washington is caught in the expiration of the bush tax breaks and the payroll tax breaks (going into an election year with a very strange economy). Wall Street loves the bonuses that come from an up year. Stat guys like the idea that a 3rd year presidential term year is up. And the average guy wants to see his retirement account break even (not counting inflation). Machine traders are open minded--really amplify the action. This all comes to a head in the first 2 weeks of December.

if there was only one tool (other than price action) i would chose the NYMO(with a histogram on it)--it works better than most over a short period of time. Cobra has noted that it is ideal to see a divergence in this indicator--and ideally (to me) that would come on a lower low and a somewhat higher putcall ratio. This NYMO divergence (POSSIBLE event) also seems to match the general time frame of early Dec. Because the first move down was fairly deep--it's easier to see some sort of divergence in the near future. Ideally this comes on a lower low scaring everyone.

a well timed desperate move (euro zone us gov) near a holiday could be fun. the only problem with all this is that it's pretty obvious. and likely only delays the inevitable.